- Fitch Solutions believes Poland is likely to add around 13 GW new PV capacity between 2020 and 2030
- For Spain, its forecast is for the country’s overall solar power capacity to scale up to 30 GW by 2030-end
- Japan will continue to maintain its position as one among the top 5 largest solar power markets globally as it is forecast to add 40.5 GW new capacity by 2030
Come 2030 and Poland will be the market to watch out for, according to Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research as it sees the country swelling up to 16.9 GW installed solar power capacity, growing from 3.9 GW till the end of 2020. It grew to over 4.46 GW till the end of March 2021 (see Poland: Total PV Capacity Till March 2021 Exceeds 4.46 GW).
Fitch Solutions 16.9 GW forecast for Poland is attributed by analysts to supportive government policies, regulatory easing, supportive tariffs and competitive costs. It is a decade earlier than what the government targets to achieve under the Polish Energy Policy PEP2040, also sometimes referred to as EPP2040. Under this policy, Poland targets to reach between 5 GW to 7 GW solar PV capacity by 2030, and scale it up to between 10 GW to 16 GW by 2040 (see Poland Approves Energy Policy Until 2040).
Soon after the Poland’s energy policy was approved, Instytut Energetyki Odnawialnej said it expected the country’s total installed solar PV capacity to exceed 6 GW till the end of 2021 and scale up to about 15 GW by 2025 (see Poland: Solar PV Capacity To Grow To 15 GW By 2025).
In its Solar Power Investment Hotspots: Outperformers And Ones To Watch commentary—part of its Global Solar Power bi-annual report, Fitch Solutions analysts highlight Spain and Japan as global solar power outperformers.
Spain
Spain is expected to grow its total installed solar power capacity by 2030 to 30 GW, up from 12.3 GW at the end of 2020, representing over 17 GW of new capacity between 2020 and 2030. By then, solar power will represent around 19% of all of Spain’s total power generation output and will make the country the 9th largest solar power nation globally as it goes about phasing out 8.2 TWh of thermal power generation and 16.5 TWh of nuclear power generation in the next decade. Parallelly, its electricity consumption will go up by 45.9 TWh over the same time frame, giving a renewed push by renewables.
Further on, growing momentum of bilateral power purchase agreements (PPA) and GW level auctions bode well for the solar sector in Spain. “This robust growth will boost Spain from the having the fourth-largest solar sector in Western Europe in 2020 to third in 2030 – pushing the market ahead of the United Kingdom and nearly even with second-place Italy.
Japan
Between 2020 and 2030, Japan is forecast to install 40.5 GW new capacity, taking its total installed capacity from 67 GW at the end of 2020 to 107.5 GW at the end of 2030, helping it maintain its position as one of the top 5 largest global solar power markets. Most of this growth will be driven by smaller-scale distributed solar facilities, supported by favorable regulatory environment and increasing support for green hydrogen.
According to Fitch Solutions analysts, the tribe of prosumers will grow in all market segments in Japan which would be a positive for the country’s energy security especially since it is highly vulnerable to natural disasters. “The increasing support for green hydrogen and ammonia production will also act as a renewables capacity growth enabler and presents upside risks to our forecasts, including within the solar sector,” explained the analsyts while counting Japan’s pledge to carbon neutrality by 2050 to help the cause of renewables (see Japan Pledges Carbon Neutral Target By 2050).
Back in December 2018, Fitch Solutions called UAE and India outperformers in global solar markets in its forecast till 2027 (see Fitch Calls UAE & India Solar ‘Outperformers’).
