- Global renewable energy market outlook by Fitch Solutions Macro Research forecasts non-hydropower renewables sector to reach 2 TW of installed capacity by 2026, with wind making up 47% and solar 45% of the total capacity mix by the end of 2027
- Between 2017-end and 2027, it expects 552 GW of new solar power capacity to be added globally with 227 GW deployed in China alone
- Reduction in domestic demand for solar, and duties imposed by the the US and India on its solar products will put considerable pressure on Chinese solar equipment makers
- It will lead to an oversupply of modules globally, bringing down prices leading to an increase in deployments in smaller markets globally
- 25% safeguard duty imposed on solar panels imported from China and Malaysia into India will increase the cost of projects in India threatening the viability of several of India’s record-breaking auctioned solar projects as tariffs are likely to hit the solar growth of the country
Between 2017-end and 2027, Fitch Solutions Macro Research expects the world to add 552 GW of solar power capacity, with China, the United States (US) and India accounting for 70% of the new installations. China alone will add 227 GW over the coming decade post the May 2018 announcement, adding an average of 23 GW annually between 2018 and 2027, which is downward revision of its original forecast of 270 GW between 2017 and 2027, to take the total to 357 GW by 2027.
Overall, from 395 GW at the end of 2017, the global solar power capacity addition will take the total to 942 GW by the end of 2027.
In its outlook for the global solar power and the global renewable energy sector, credit and macro intelligence solutions provider forecasts slowdown in solar growth in China following solar subsidy cuts along with solar equipment import tariffs on Chinese exports into the US and India will put Chinese solar equipment makers under pressure and limit their access to the second and third fastest expanding solar markets globally.
It will also lead to a reduced demand for solar panels from the country. This will benefit the global module prices owing to oversupply, which in turn will help smaller solar power markets to grow in the field.
However, a very recent development in Beijing, may just revive the hopes of Chinese solar industry growing again where the National Energy Administration is contemplating increasing its 2020 PV target under 13th Five-Year Plan from 105 GW to somewhere between 210 GW to 270 GW (see China Discusses Higher 2020 PV Target).
Nonetheless, Asian region will dominate the solar power sector expansion during the period, with not only China and India, but also Japan and South Korea making up the total and among the top 10 fastest expanding solar markets globally over the 10-year forecast period.
The 25% safeguard duty imposed by the Indian government on solar panels imported from China and Malaysia will increase the cost of projects in India, according to the research, threatening the viability of several of India’s record-breaking auctioned solar projects as tariffs are likely to hit the solar growth of the country.
One of the smallest regional solar power markets in the world will be the Middle East as the region will focus on leveraging its natural gas reserves.
Non-hydropower renewables sector will reach 2 TW of installed capacity by 2026, with wind making up 47% and solar 45% of the total capacity mix by the end of 2027.
Wind will continue to be dominant renewable energy resource, according to the forecast offered, but solar is expected to expand by 138% between end-2017 and 2027. During the forecast period, it forecasts 79 markets to add more than 100 MW of renewable capacity with solar power being the main source of renewables expansion.