![The simulation modeling done by the University of Exeter and UCL, published in Nature Communications, shows solar PV to have the lowest LCOE by 2030. (Photo Credit: Nature Communications)](http://media.assettype.com/taiyangnews%2Fimport%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2023%2F10%2FPresentation1-21.png?w=480&auto=format%2Ccompress&fit=max)
The world may have already crossed an 'irreversible tipping point' for solar to make this renewable energy generation technology the dominant source of electricity globally, even before 2050. New research led by the University of Exeter and University College London (UCL) claims that solar energy is headed in this direction even without any more ambitious climate policies.
The researchers use a data-driven energy-technology-economy simulation model called E3ME-FTT to forecast the deployment of energy technologies up to 2060 based on current policies in motion.
Out of 72% of simulations done for robustness testing, solar made up over 50% of power generation in 2050. "This suggests that solar dominance is not only possible but also likely," reads the research. At the same time, they warn that fossil-fuel dominated projection baselines are 'not realistic' anymore.
Even in terms of the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE), solar PV is expected to score over others by 2030, taking over from wind energy that had the lowest LCOE in a majority of the 70 regions the researchers covered in the simulation in 2020.
A disruption from 4 main barriers could play spoilsport though. As UCL Institute for Sustainable Resources' Dr. Nadia Ameli points out, "There is a growing belief that, with the dramatic decline in the global average cost of renewables, it will be much easier for the developing world to decarbonize. Our study reveals persistent hurdles, especially considering the challenges these nations face in accessing capital under equitable conditions."
The researchers identify these barriers that need to be overcome as the following:
The complete study titled The momentum of the solar energy transition has been published in the scientific journal Nature Communications.