Japan’s Solar Potential: 180 GW DC By 2030

• RTS Corporation believes Japan can achieve its target of 117.6 GW AC solar capacity target by 2030, and also overachieve it
• In the accelerated scenario, analysts see the country installing a total of 180 GW DC/140 GW AC solar capacity reaching an annual capacity of 14 GW DC
• Market is likely to move from FIT based model to a non-FIT/FIP based model, with helpful support through PPAs
• There will be a further growth of newer applications as agrivoltaic, floating solar, along with rooftop PV as ground mounted PV shrinks

Japanese solar consultancy RTS Corporation pegs Japan's cumulative solar energy potential under friendly policies and favorable environment to grow to 180 GW DC/140 GW AC by 2030, up from what the government aims to with an 'ambitious' 117.6 GW AC target.

However, even under a business as usual (BAU) scenario of the RTS report, analysts expect Japan to install 154 GW DC/121 GW AC capacity considering 8 GW DC to be installed annually, over and above the official target. Under the accelerated scenario, the numbers should grow even further to 140 GW AC with annual additions reaching 14 GW DC in FY 2030.

It would be a growth from 7.54 GW DC/5.84 GW AC annual additions and a total capacity of 72 GW DC the country exited 2020 with.

"In the accelerated scenario, it is assumed that various measures to promote and support PV deployment will be actively enhanced and accelerated, issues will be solved and costs will be reduced by technology development, a market of new business models will emerge, and conversion to green electricity will be accelerated," according to RTS analysts. "Through these developments and also from the energy security perspective, it is forecasted that PV installations will be accelerated."

RTS expects solar PV installations to grow from a feed-in-tariff (FIT) supported model to a new non-FIT/feed-in-premium (FIP) model, spurred by power purchase agreements (PPA).

Maximum annual growth under the accelerated scenario is expected to come from private buildings that are believed to report 3.76 GW capacity by 2030, followed by 2.97 GW in ground mounted solar, 1.65 GW in newly build independent houses, and 1.6 GW on public buildings.

Agrivoltaic too will ramp up as its installed capacity is forecast to grow from 245 MW in 2020 to 1.379 GW in 2030, and that of floating PV from 142 MW to 538 MW, respectively. The self-consumption market is also forecasted to grow mainly for residential and building applications along with newer applications, as commercial ground mounted PV shrinks.

RTS Corporation's report titled Forecasting PV Installed Capacity in Japan toward FY 2030 (2022 Edition) can be purchased on its website. The report was originally published in Japanese language in March 2022; the English language version has been released now.

As per its current targets, Japan wants to increase its renewable energy share in the national energy mix to between 36% to 38% by 2030, but the industry and several stakholders want to see it grow to between 40% to 50%. Recently, Japan Climate Initiative said 285 organizations support a target of up to 50% (see Call For Japan To Increase RE Commitment).