Solar panel manufacturer Maxeon Solar Technologies ended the year 2022 with annual revenues of $1.06 billion having shipped 2.35 GW modules, meeting its Q4/2022 revenue guidance with $324 million and achieving gross profit of $20 million attributing it to strong operational performance and prudent supply chain management and expected supply chain cost reductions realized sooner than expected.
Maxeon shipped 734 MW in Q4/2022 but also widened its GAAP net loss to -$75 million from -$73 million in Q4/2021 and -$44.7 million in Q3/2022 (see Maxeon's Q3/2022 Revenues Went Up 25% Annually).
Revenues for the 4th quarter included $162 million from Performance Line and $161 million from IBC panels. Distributed generation (DG) continues to be the market driver for Maxeon as it led revenues with $244 million. Remaining revenues were contributed by large scale segment.
European shipments went up by 25% annually as the management expects to approach an annualized deployment run rate of roughly 1 GW in the European DG business. In Belgium alone, its shipments grew by around 40% YoY. Modules shipped to Europe in the quarter included increased numbers of Performance Line modules from its HSPV joint venture.
Management says cost decreases on key input materials during the reporting quarter contributed to the company's results. CFO Kai Strohbecke shared on a call with analysts, "On a year-over-year basis, the impact of total supply chain cost inflation on our cost of goods sold was favorable $2 million. This is materially improved from the prior 7 quarters when we saw an average unfavorable impact of more than $30 million per quarter. At the same time, increasing ASPs resulted in an uplift of $43 million, providing a significantly favorable contribution to our bottom line."
In the US DG market, Maxeon is confident of its market growth despite reports of demand 'cooling'.
The expanded module supply deal with SunPower with new commercial is a positive for Maxeon. Even outside SunPower partnership, it sees an opportunity with the abrupt exit of LG from the US market. Maxeon has added a new distribution partner Greentech Renewables in the US. It plans to exit the US market in 2023 with more than 100 channel partners for its Maxeon 3 technology, 'all incremental to SunPower's channel' (see SunPower & Maxeon Solar Extend Supply Agreement).
For the US utility scale business, it has secured cumulative bookings of up to 4.2 GW till 2025 'plus options with advance deposits for an additional 1.5 GW through 2027'.
US manufacturing plans remain on track and currently under due diligence with the Department of Energy's Loan Program Office. PERC cell fab capacity is on schedule for full output in 2023.
"Next quarter, Maxeon projects further progress leading to positive adjusted EBITDA for the first time since our spin-out," said Maxeon's new CEO Bill Mulligan.
Guidance
Maxeon targets to ship 730 MW to 770 MW of solar modules in Q1/2023 expecting revenues of $305 million to $345 million. Gross profit is guided between $29 million to $39 million and adjusted EBITDA as within $10 million to $20 million.
Capital expenditures for Q1, related to preparations for the capacity expansion of Maxeon 7 technology and US manufacturing of Performance line panels among others, will be between $13 million to $17 million. This amount excludes investments for plans for a multi-GW US fab.
For full year 2023, it forecasts revenues of $1.35 billion to $1.55 billion, adjusted EBITDA of $80 million to $100 million and capital expenditures of $100 million to $120 million.
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