Poland Could Host 28.5 GW Solar By 2030

• Latest IEO report sees Poland ending the year 2022 with 12 GW cumulative installed solar PV capacity, having already reached 10 GW in May 2022
• At the end of Q1/2022, there were another 12.5 GW of newly developed projects with guaranteed grid connection conditions
• In the solar PV domain, there is growing interest in prosumer model, as well as for corporate PPAs and auctions
• Government must ensure availability of grid connections and create right legal and economic conditions for solar to thrive

Poland could be looking at its cumulative installed solar PV capacity growing up to 12 GW by 2022-end, further up to 20 GW by 2025, and 28.5 GW by the end of 2030, increasing from 7.6 GW at the end of 2021, according to the Instytut Energetyki Odnawialnej (IEO) or the Institute for Renewable Energy.

While the government continues to anticipate up to 16 GW cumulative capacity by 2040, the IEO has increased its forecast from its previous estimate of 15 GW by 2025 (see Poland: Solar PV Capacity To Grow To 15 GW By 2025).

In its latest report Photovoltaic Market in Poland 2022, the IEO says the country exited 2021 with the annual addition of 3.7 GW, compared to 2.43 GW in 2020 thanks to high electricity prices and regulatory changes. In May 2022, it crossed 10 GW cumulative capacity.

The market remains predominantly a prosumer led one with interest growing among individual as well as business prosumers—the latter mostly due to high prices of electricity impacting businesses.

The government is also supporting the same with the development of prosumers with the inclusion of solar PV as well as storage facilities and energy management systems for funding under the National Environmental Protection Fund's 4^th edition of My Electricity program.

Poland is also seeing a spurt in long term (up to 10 years) corporate power purchase agreements (PPA) between solar power generators and industrial consumers that provide financing for solar power plants, in the same way as 15-year PPAs are signed for projects selected for auctions.

The IEO adds that auctions too have supported the growth of solar PV in the country as the IEO counts more than 6.3 GW solar PV capacity as having been selected during the last 6 years when auctions were conducted.

Going forward, the IEO expects the years 2022-2024 as a period of extremely fast growth for solar in Poland. It counts 12.5 GW of developed projects with guaranteed grid connection conditions at the end of Q1/2022, comprising around 5 GW not yet built but already contracted in auctions.

However, analysts see the development of solar PV technology in the country limited by the availability of grid connection capacity and condition of grid infrastructure. At the same time, Government Plenipotentiary for RES, Minister Ireneusz Zyska suggests, "It is crucial to create the right legal and economic environment for further development of the sector on market terms. Further cooperation of the government administration with stakeholders in the sector is necessary for Poland to continue its energy transformation based on modern zero-emission technologies."

The complete report in Polish language is available for free download on IEO's website.