Sinovoltaics forecasts Southeast Asia’s nameplate solar module production capacity to rise from 86 GW today to 101 GW by 2028-2030
Laos and Indonesia emerge as solar hubs as Cambodia, Vietnam and Thailand are subjected to US tariffs
Even with efforts to localize solar manufacturing, the global markets will remain reliant on Chinese solar wafers and cells
Dutch-German consultancy Sinovoltaics expects strong growth in Southeast Asia’s solar PV manufacturing despite headwinds created by the US tariffs. The global markets, it notes, will continue to remain dependent on Chinese wafer and solar cell supply even as they work to build domestic supply chains.
In the 1st edition of its Southeast Asia Solar Supply Chain Map for 2025, Sinovoltaics expects the nameplate solar PV module manufacturing capacity of Southeast Asia to grow from 86 GW at present to 101 GW by 2028 or 2030.
For solar cells, it projects an increase from 51.3 GW to 69.8 GW by 2030. Ingot capacity of the region will likely double from 16 GW to 30 GW, while the polysilicon production will scale from 82,000 tons to 342,000 tons, supported by an additional 102,000 metric tons (MT) of metallurgical-grade silicon (MG-Si).
According to Sinovoltaics, there is a clear shift towards Laos and Indonesia as budding solar PV manufacturing hubs since Cambodia, Vietnam and Thailand are subject to US tariffs (see US Solar Imports From Cambodia Hit Hardest With Final AD/CVD duties).
Nevertheless, the long-term outlook for manufacturing growth in Southeast Asia remains uncertain, according to the analysts. Operational capacities in the region have been significantly reduced or temporarily halted due to the US tariff impact.
“Once a strategic workaround for Chinese manufacturers aiming to access Western markets, Southeast Asia now faces growing constraints. In response, some producers are redirecting exports toward Europe,” reads the analysis that can be downloaded for free on its website. The consultancy updates its solar supply chain maps every 4 months.
Beyond these Southeast Asian markets, Chinese solar PV manufacturers are increasingly eyeing the Middle East region as a prospective hub for the PV production supply chain, among the regions that are not impacted by the US tariffs.
Sinovoltaics also plans to release a Middle East Solar Supply Chain Map in the near future.
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