The world must install 1,122 GW of renewable capacity annually to meet COP28 2030 targets, says IRENA
Solar PV leads growth, but 716 GW of yearly additions are needed to reach 6.15 TW by 2030
Global renewable energy technology manufacturing investments dropped 21% in 2024, highlighting risks from oversupply and policy changes
The world must install 1.122 TW of new renewable capacity every year from 2025 to 2030 to stay on track with the COP28 consensus target of tripling renewables to 11.2 TW by the end of this decade, according to the International Renewable Energy Agency’s (IRENA) latest tracking report towards the goal.
IRENA said that global renewable additions reached a record 581.9 GW in 2024, but this remains far below what is needed. If the world maintains the annual growth of 15.1% in 2024 for the rest of this decade, it will reach a cumulative 10.3 TW by 2030, falling short of the target by 0.9 TW. On the bright side, this shortfall is less than the 1.49 TW calculated in 2024, according to the agency.
To meet the 11.2 TW goal, IRENA stresses that annual renewable energy growth must accelerate to 16.6% for the rest of the decade, up from 4.44 TW, highlighting an urgent need for stronger policy and investment momentum. It translates into 1.122 TW of annual additions each year from 2025 to 2030 to cover the 6.7 TW still needed.
“Delivering this capacity would result in variable renewable technologies overtaking total fossil fuel capacity by 2030, accounting for 61% (solar photovoltaic [PV] 41% and wind 20%) of total installed capacity, up from 31% in 2024,” it adds.
Achieving these targets will require an estimated $30 trillion between 2025 and 2030, divided between renewable energy generation capacity ($1.44 trillion/year – up from $624 billion in 2024), energy efficiency and energy conservation ($2.64 trillion/year), and grids and flexibility ($791 billion to $912 billion/year).
Solar Target Raised to 6.15 TW
Solar was the largest contributor to the mix last year with 452 GW, or 27% more additions compared to 2023, followed by onshore wind’s 114 GW, hydropower’s 9 GW, bioenergy’s 5 GW, and 1 GW from others.
With the exponential growth spurred by rapid cost reductions, short project development pipelines, large-scale deployments (averaging 139 MW/project in 2024), fossil-fuel price shocks, supportive policies, and mature supply chains, solar PV’s 2030 target has been raised from 5.5 TW to 6.15 TW, according to the IRENA report.
Analysts believe that solar PV is on track to achieve the 6.15 TW target if annual additions can reach an average of 716 GW for the remainder of the decade. Global solar PV additions reached 380 GW in H1 2025, thanks to the pre-June 2025 installation rush in China (see Ember: Global Solar PV Installations Hit 380 GW In H1 2025). Monthly additions in China have since tapered down to reach a little over 7 GW AC in August. However, if the country ends up adding up to 300 GW AC this year as projected by the China Photovoltaic Industry Association, annual PV additions should likely end the year at around 700 GW, with contributions from other markets (see China’s Solar PV Additions Fall To Just Over 7 GW in August 2025). Time will tell.
On the other hand, going by country-level progress, policy updates, pace of technological development, and other relevant factors impact the scalability of other technologies by 2030. Hence, IRENA says the 2030 targets for most of the other renewable energy technologies have been adjusted downward.
Investments in Manufacturing
In terms of investment trends in renewable energy technology manufacturing, the IRENA report states that annual investments in manufacturing for solar, wind, battery, and hydrogen technologies dropped by 21% to $102 billion in 2024, after having reached a peak of $128 billion in 2023. This, it explains, is the net impact of a 72% decline in investments in solar PV factories, due to the global oversupply of manufacturing capacity.
IRENA analysts project solar PV manufacturing investments in 2025-2026 to decline to just 1/3rd of the level seen in 2023-2024, even as countries outside China and Southeast Asia diversify their supply chains. India, with its Production Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme, is expected to more than triple its share of global investment from 2.5% in 2023-2024 to almost 8% in 2025-26.
The US policy vis-à-vis its long-term trading partner India may have some impact from the buildout of new factories in the country, as the North American nation accounted for 97% of the Indian solar PV module exports in 2024. “The latest tariffs may curtail US-India solar PV trade, diminish margins on exports, and even slow the buildout of new factories in India,” cautions the report.
On the other hand, battery storage capacity continues to expand as the world added 74 GW or around 180 GWh in 2024, almost doubling from the annual additions in 2023. China accounted for the lion’s share with 39 GW, followed by the US with close to 12 GW, and Europe with approximately 11.5 GW.
Challenges and Recommendations
Despite growth in renewable energy capacity, its distribution remains highly uneven. According to the report, by the end of 2024, Asia, Europe, and North America held 85.4% of the total, while the rest of the world shared just 14.6%.
Africa, for instance, with its huge off-grid population and ample renewable energy potential, needs to see the benefits of expanding clean energy to meet its rising electricity demand and provide broader energy access. The continent has only 70 GW of renewable capacity, and added only 7.4 GW in 2024. It requires 38 GW of annual additions over the next 6 years to achieve the required capacity of around 300 GW for the continent under the 1.5°C Scenario.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres stressed, “Renewables are deployed faster and cheaper than fossil fuels – driving growth, jobs, and affordable power. But the window to keep the 1.5°C limit within reach is rapidly closing. We must step up, scale up and speed up the just energy transition – for everyone, everywhere.”
The report urges countries to update their national climate plans (NDC 3.0) ahead of COP30 in Brazil in November 2025, double renewable ambition, and raise annual investment in renewables to at least $1.4 trillion by 2030.
IRENA Director-General Francesco La Camera added, “By raising targets, mobilising finance and deepening cooperation, major economies can lead the energy transition and make COP30 a milestone.”
The complete report titled Delivering on the UAE Consensus: Tracking progress toward tripling renewable energy capacity and doubling energy efficiency by 2030, is available for free download on IRENA’s website.
