The year 2024 is set to be a record year for solar power generation in Europe as Rystad Energy forecasts it to grow by about 50 TWh, led by Germany. It will be the 1st time for solar to grow more than any other generation source in the region.
Rystad's study includes all 27 member nations of the European Union (EU) along with Norway, Serbia and Switzerland in this research.
Germany's leading role here comes from its need to become self-sufficient in energy production as it would like to ensure energy security and reduce reliance on imports, especially since its nuclear power plants close down, points out Rystad.
The star solar market of Europe in 2023, Germany contributed over 14 GW DC to the 60 GW DC total capacity Europe added in 2023. It is expected to add more solar capacity than any other country this year as well, thanks also to significant improvement in solar radiation.
Wind power generation too is forecast to go up by 38 TWh in 2024 even though actual capacity additions will be around 25 GW. In 2023, wind energy output increased by 50 TWh. Solar will lead European renewable energy growth in 2024, both in terms of capacity as well as power generation.
Rystad believes stable nuclear power output will complement renewable energy generation, leading to a further decline in power generated by fossil fuels—anticipated to be 60 TWh.
Nuclear power is forecast by analysts to generate 20 TWh more this year on an annual basis, but lower than pre-2022 levels as the overall nuclear capacity decreases. Hydro power generation will go up by a modest 6 TWh.
Overall, the region will see its power generation growing from 2,687 TWh in 2023 to 2,740 TWh.
The balance between coal and gas power plants will depend on cost-competitiveness of these 2 sources, they add.
"As the demand for power in Europe is only growing slightly, we can conclude that Europe is fulfilling its electricity demand growth entirely with renewable sources," said Rystad's Head of Renewables & Power, EMEA Research, Vegard Wilk Vollset. "This indicates that the growth of renewable energy is more than sufficient to cover the growth in demand, which is why we are observing a decline in the use of fossil fuels."
The European Market Outlook for Solar Power 2023-2027 (EMO) report of SolarPower Europe, the European Union (EU) installed 56 GW solar power capacity in 2023. It, however, expects solar energy's growth to slow down with only 62 GW predicted to be added in 2024 and 73.8 GW in 2025. The bloc needs to install 70 GW annually on an average to achieve the 750 GW solar target by 2030 (see EU Solar PV Installations Reach 56 GW In 2023).
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