- Rethink Energy sees big potential for global perovskite manufacturing, expecting it to exceed 2 GW by 2026
- By 2030, it is likely to hit the 100 GW mark with less complicated supply chains and lower costs
- Steadily growing efficiency rates and more players entering the segment, including established names, are clear signs
- Europe is likely to be the biggest single region for global perovskite installations until 2034 when China will overtake it
Going by the steady improvement in their efficiency, perovskite is likely to become a ‘viable force’ in the global solar PV manufacturing industry, growing to account for a cumulative 100 GW by 2030, according to new research from England-based thinktank Rethink Research’s Rethink Energy.
Perovskite manufacturing is on the path to see ‘unrelenting growth’, exceeding 2 GW mark in 2026, growing to 10 GW in 2027 and 100 GW in 2030. The report predicts that by 2040, over 90% of solar manufacturing will be perovskites in one form or another, which will involve 1.04 GW manufacturing from 1.615 GW production capacity.
Rethink analysts admit that the technology has had several ‘false starts and failures’ so far, which was even discussed by the Father of Modern Photovoltaics, Professor Martin Green of Australia, in an interaction with TaiyangNews at SNEC 2023. Back then, he said it will be challenging to commercialize perovskite-silicon tandem cell technology by 2030 (see SNEC Exclusive: Interview With Professor Martin Green).
Rethink Solar Analyst and Lead Author of the report Andries Wantenaar says the confidence in perovskite this time around comes from the fact that this technology has started to win in the efficiency stakes and is expected to end up with less complicated supply chains and lower costs.
Some of these have international certifications as well, for instance IEC 61215 and IEC61730 for Microquanta’s perovskite module announced in January 2023 (see China PV News Snippets).
There is a growing crowd of manufacturers in this space, including 41 new or upcoming companies covered by the report with 22 from China. Microquanta, GCL System Integration and Utmolight, all Chinese, are already operating a 100 MW pilot production line each, while in the West it is Oxford PV with this volume in production.
Beyond these big 4, there are newer companies coming onto the scene almost every month. Major silicon manufacturers are also expected to announce their foray into perovskite manufacturing before 2030 and some like LONGi, First Solar and Q Cells have already jumped on the bandwagon to explore tandem cells with perovskites (see Q Cells To Invest Big In Tandem Solar).
Wantenaar states, “Ironically, many of the first Chinese panels will be used for export and, outside China, the US will go ahead of lead Europe in manufacturing; primarily because of First Solar, which has acquired a perovskite company and, to date, it is the largest and most reliable perovskite adopter outside of China,” (see US Solar Panel Maker Expands To Europe For Next Gen Tech).
The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) will also be a big catalyst for perovskite manufacturing in the US.
Europe will be home to a majority of global perovskite installations until 2028 and will continue to be the biggest single region until 2034 when China overtakes it.
The commercial and industrial (C&I) rooftop solar segment will use this technology initially, whereas utility-scale is not likely to be using it extensively to begin with, according to the report.
In the near term, Wantenaar expects investment into perovskites will come to a minimum of a billion dollars this year.