- FPV market is forecast to pass the 6 GW threshold by 2031, according to Wood Mackenzie
- It also adds that in China, the floating solar project pipeline will grow at a steady pace going forward
- Cumulative floating solar capacity in China is likely to cross 13 GW by 2031 at a 12% CAGR over the next 10 years
- 15 countries are likely to exceed 500 MW of cumulative FPV installations by 2031
Come 2031 and the global floating solar market is expected to pass the 6 GW threshold as demand for solar energy grows amid increasing concerns of land availability and rising costs for ground mounted PV projects, says Wood Mackenzie.
It also adds that in China the floating solar project pipeline will grow at a steady pace with cumulative floating solar capacity to cross 13 GW by 2021 at a 12% CAGR over the next 10 years. China will lead the world in this segment as it uses flooded coal mines that have been decommissioned, to develop floating solar.
By 2031, 15 countries are likely to exceed 500 MW of cumulative FPV installations with China, India and Indonesia accounting for almost 70% of total FPV demand in 2022.
Along with the trio, multiple FPV projects are also being developed in other countries as South Korea and Thailand. In 2022, the Asia Pacific market had close to 3 GW projects, capturing more than 90% of floating solar demand, according to the market intelligence firm.
Sharing research insights into the subject at SNEC PV Power Expo 2023 in Shanghai, China, Wood Mackenzie Consultant Ting Yu estimates floating solar to grow at a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15% in the next 10 years and achieve a steady market share compared to overall global demand.
Yu observes, “Despite development costs of FPVs ranging between 20-50% higher than comparable ground-mount projects, increased competitiveness in the developer and EPC landscape is helping to drive down costs in the sector.”
Wood Mackenzie considers Europe the 2nd largest region for FPV demand with almost 150 MW capacity, with Netherlands in the lead, followed by France. The Netherlands alone represented 32% of the region’s FPV market in 2022.
“After 2025, slow growth is projected as the main spots would have already been developed at this point. In addition, grid constraints and higher LCOE for bigger plants means the technology is not competitive against rooftop PV,” added Yu.
The US FPV market is forecast to grow at roughly 13% CAGR over the next decade.