Research by ACAP finds ARENA’s 30-30-30 ultra-low-cost solar target could create a 2,000 GW PV market in Australia
It could help produce around 1,000 TWh for domestic use and 2,600 TWh annually for exports
Lower solar power costs could help industries produce green aluminum, ammonia, and steel at competitive prices while supporting new export opportunities
The 30-30-30 ultra-low-cost solar (ULCS) target set by the Australian Renewable Energy Agency (ARENA) has the potential to create a 2,000 GW-scale solar PV market in Australia, according to new research by the Australian Centre for Advanced Photovoltaics (ACAP).
The 30-30-30 target refers to achieving 30% solar module efficiency at an installed cost of $0.30/W by 2030.
According to an integrated modeling framework developed by ACAP researchers from the Australian National University (ANU) and University of New South Wales (UNSW), ULCS could provide 1,000 TWh annually for domestic use and 2,600 TWh/year for export. This could create a 2,000 GW PV market.
In its study titled Mapping the market opportunities for ultra low-cost solar, the team focused on an integrated approach. Instead of studying them separately, it captured the interactions between industrial decarbonization, electricity market transformation, and green commodity production to reach the conclusion.
This new approach reveals how ULCS can be a catalyst for an economy-wide energy transition, driving energy system transformation and industrial decarbonization, the researchers explain.
“Used smartly, 2000 GW of solar PV could power a fully decarbonised domestic economy and support large-scale production of green metals for export – positioning Australia as a global supplier of green products while dramatically reducing national emissions,” said Dr. Bin Lu of ANU.
Under the 30-30-30 vision, electricity systems could provide reliable 100% renewable power at lower costs than today’s wholesale prices. Lower power prices would help heavy industries reduce costs, allowing green aluminum, ammonia, and steel to match conventional production costs, while electro-fuels for aviation move closer to commercial viability, according to the research.
“Australia has abundant solar resources, and some of the world’s richest mineral reserves, such as iron ore and bauxite,” Lu added. “Used smartly, cheaper renewable technologies could power Australia’s transition to a global supplier of green products.”
