A Fraser Institute study assesses the feasibility of Canada’s net-zero emissions target by 2050
It does not see any single low-carbon or no-carbon energy source as delivering by the target year
The authors recommend the government to focus on managing the existing infrastructure better
Canadian government’s plans to meet the country’s future electricity demand with low or no carbon sources is ‘likely impossible’ within the broader net-zero GHG mitigation plan of 2050, claims a new report by public policy think tank Fraser Institute.
The country’s Clean Electricity Regulations (Canada 2024a) require all provinces to fully decarbonize their electricity generation to help meet the federal government’s 2050 net-zero target. According to government estimates, it will require an additional 684 TWh of generation capacity by mid-century.
In its study titled Decarbonizing Canada’s Electricity Generation: Rapid Decarbonization of Electricity and Future Supply Constraints, Fraser Institute assesses what meeting all of this electricity demand by 2050 entails, with each clean energy source.
If Canada sought to meet 100% of the expected demand with solar power generation, it would require the construction of 840 solar power generation stations the size of Alberta’s Travers Solar. The latter covers close to 3,330 acres of land with 692 MW DC/ capacity.
Each of these 840 projects will require an estimated 2-year construction timeline, taking the total timeline to 1,680 construction years. These projects will also take up 907,000 hectares of land, which is equal to around 1,440 times the land area of Toronto, according to the study.
Similarly, meeting the 2050 target with only 100% wind power generation will require 575 installations the size of a 365 MW existing project, each requiring 2 years to build, adding up to 1,150 construction years.
Hydropower is another source the report considers. Canada will need to build 134 such facilities the size of British Columbia’s Site C power station, with 1,100 MW capacity each. Bringing all of these projects online will require some 938 construction years or 7 years/project.
Meeting all of Canada’s future electricity needs with nuclear power alone will necessitate the construction of 16 additional plants the size of Ontario’s Bruce Nuclear Generating Station which has 6,232 MW installed capacity, with each facility requiring an average of 7 years/project or 112 construction years.
Securing permits and clearing regulatory processes as part of the review process for such projects will take longer, leading to additional years of delay.
Going by these estimates, the authors of the study term the 2050 federal targets as impractical, requiring unrealistic energy development. They argue that “meeting the predicted future electricity demand with these low/no CO2 sources will be a daunting challenge and is likely impossible within the 2050 timeframe.”
Even simple calculations, add the authors, without factoring in the regulatory context, show that Canada will not be able to meet all of its electricity demand with only low-carbon or no-carbon electricity sources.
They believe the goal to become a net-zero GHG emitter and rapidly decarbonize itself does not constitute sound policy. Rather, the government can divert its resources to focus on strengthening the existing infrastructure and built environments.
“The government could also increase Canadian resilience by managing its infrastructure more dynamically using pricing systems and market-based tools, which offer greater, more rapid responsiveness compared with more rigid governmental command-and-control policies,” reads the study.
The complete study is available for free download on Fraser Institute’s website.
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