China To Exit 2023 With Up To 180 GW AC Solar PV

• CPIA has revised its 2023 solar PV installation forecast yet again, now expecting 345 GW AC to 390 GW AC of new capacity
• China will expand by up to 180 GW AC of the global total, fueled by large wind and solar energy bases expected to come online by 2023-end
• As large markets like the US and India follow protectionist policies, China is exploring other markets

China, the world's largest solar PV market, is to account for 160 GW AC to 180 GW AC of global solar PV installations in 2023, which are likely to settle between 345 GW AC and 390 GW AC, according to the China Solar PV Industry Association (CPIA).

This is less than Bloomberg New Energy Finance's (BNEF) up to 415 GW PV forecast for this year, as Youru Tan shared during his presentation at the TaiyangNews High Efficiency Solar Technologies Conference on day 1 (see TOPCon: TaiyangNews High Efficiency Solar Technologies Conference Day 1). BNEF expects China to end up with 240 GW of new PV capacity in 2023 (see China To Install Well Over 200 GW Solar In 2023).

The CPIA announced its revised forecast after China installed 142.56 GW AC PV during 10M/2023, with a 145% YoY increase, exceeding its previous forecast of 120 GW to 140 GW (see CPIA Raises Solar Installation Forecast For 2023).

The drop in prices in the solar PV supply chain, explained CPIA's Wang Bohua at a recent event in China, along with the government policy of county-level promotion of solar PV contributed to 98.8% annual growth in residential installations in 2023 with no subsidies.

The CPIA's 3^rd revised forecast for this year is based on China getting ready to connect its 1^st batch of large-scale wind and solar bases in the Chinese deserts before the year ends. These projects are also shifting solar installation activity from East and South China to the North and Northwest regions.

In terms of manufacturing, as the world's largest solar PV producer, China continues to churn out a record amount of products. Within 10M/2023, CPIA counts the country to have produced around 1.14 million tons of polysilicon, 460 GW of wafers, 404 GW of solar cells, and 367 GW of modules.

China exported $42.99 billion worth of PV products—wafers, cells and modules—during 10M/2023 as the price declines in the industrial chain pulled down the export value by 2.4% YoY. Nonetheless, it exported higher volumes with 55.7 GW (90% YoY increase) of silicon wafers, 32.4 GW (72%) of cells and 177.6 GW (34%) of modules.

While Europe was its largest market in 2023, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia registered themselves on the list of China's top 10 solar export markets. As the US and India pursue protectionist measures for their local solar markets, with Europe expected to follow suit, Chinese manufacturers are seeking greener pastures elsewhere.