A clear winner of the energy transition across the globe is likely to be solar power that's expected to become the world's largest source of power generation around 2035, according to Statkraft that expects average annual addition of solar capacity in the European Union (EU) growing between 45 GW and 52 GW towards 2030.
While this estimate is up from 26 GW solar the EU installed in 2021, it is also higher than 33 GW annual estimate forecast to be added pre-war, but within the expected 49 GW annual capacity as targeted under REPowerEU (see EU Announces 600 GW AC Solar Target By 2030).
Solar energy production will increase by a factor of 26 from today to over 21,000 TWh in 2050, equivalent to covering more than 80% of global power demand today.
Things that work in favor of solar is its ability to ramp up faster, have varied applicability and having an effective global supply chain that's of course heavily dependent on China currently.
For wind energy, the estimate by report writers is for 18 GW to 26 GW annual capacity additions down from 32 GW expected to be installed under REPowerEU.
Costs for both solar and wind have gone up due to temporary elevated metal prices, but it has not diminished the competitiveness of these clean energy sources when compared to fossil power technologies since fossil power prices to have hit the roof of late.
The 7th edition of Statkraft's annual report Low Emissions Scenario sees the world moving faster towards clean and efficient energy since Russian invasion of Ukraine since February 2022 which it argues is the 'main solution' to ensure energy security at affordable energy prices.
The need is for clean energy sources to navigate the geopolitical conflicts and rivalry. Writers recommend the need to decentralize supply chains for metals critical to the energy transition that's currently concentrated in a few countries. Insufficient investment in and diversification of production capacity could postpone the energy transition, they caution.
"In this year's Low Emissions Scenario we show that, while challenging, it is possible for Europe to become fully independent of Russian gas before 2030 – mainly through the use of mature clean technologies such as heat pumps, solar and wind, but also more energy efficiency and diversification of gas supply," concludes the report.
The report can be downloaded for free from Statkraft's website.
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