SolarPower Europe (SPE) counts 41.4 GW new solar PV capacity having been installed in 2022 by 27 member states of the European Union (EU), 47% up YoY from 28.1 GW deployed in 2021, taking the cumulative to 208.9 GW by end of 2022. The association expects further strong EU market growth, adding 53.6 GW in 2023, according to their Medium Scenario.
According to the latest edition of SPE's EU Market Outlook for Solar Power 2022-2026, solar power displayed its 'true potential' for the 1st time in the EU in 2022 driven by record high energy prices and geopolitical tensions, improving its business case. Supply chain constraints and COVID-19 related restrictions also eased during the period, enabling much higher installations than last year.
Germany was once again in the driver's seat having installed 7.9 GW, followed by 7.5 GW in Spain, 4.9 GW in Poland, 4.0 GW in the Netherlands and 2.7 GW in France. The report points out that all top 10 markets are also GW-scale markets for the 1st time and that 26 member states improved their annual solar installations.
Germany is expected to exceed 10 GW in 2023, contributing to a total 62.6 GW to be added between 2023 and 2026 reaching a cumulative 131 GW by end of 2026, while Spain will install another 51.2 GW between 2023 and 2026 taking its cumulative to 77.7 GW, up from 26.4 GW end of 2022.
Going forward, the report writers see the 27-member bloc installing around 275.2 GW between 2023 and 2026, reaching 484.1 GW by the end of 2026 under the medium scenario, with annual installations reaching more than 85 GW in 2026. However, in an their high scenario they see the annual market could be as big as 68 GW in 2023, and nearly 119 GW in 2026.
According to SPE's Medium Scenario long-term outlook, the total solar fleet in the EU will increase from 209 GW installed end of 2022, to about 400 GW by end of 2025, and 920 GW by end of 2030 (see graph below). The authors highlight, "What is more striking is that the 920 GW total market size in our new Medium Scenario 2030 has improved so much that it now overshoots the EU Commission's REPowerEU strategy's 750 GW solar target by 170 GW; the previous 2030 projection was expecting 672 GW in 2030."
SPE also modeled a high scenario for 2030. "Our High Scenario 2030 outlook illustrates that if the remaining obstacles to solar development are lifted, and all Member States set appropriate levels of ambition and enabling policy frameworks, the EU could run a 1,184 GW solar power fleet by end of the decade, which is 58% higher than the REPowerEU goal," it said.
For Europe to get ready for solar, the report recommends 5 key areas namely:
"A solar-powered Europe can only be based on smoother administrative processes, speedier grid connections, and resilient supply chains," said SPE's Policy Director Dries Acke.
The report can be downloaded for free on SPE's website.
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