Fraunhofer ISE Study Maps Future Of Floating Solar Technology

Floating solar PV is gaining global momentum as a land-saving clean energy solution, with installed capacity rising from just 10 MW in 2014 to over 7.7 GW in 2023. To support its wider adoption, Germany’s Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems ISE has published a comprehensive guide detailing the potential, technology, and planning considerations of floating PV systems in Germany. 

Through this guide, Fraunhofer ISE says it aims to disseminate information on FPV and its economic viability among municipalities, companies, public utilities, energy suppliers, and other stakeholders. It outlines technical, legal, and sustainability aspects, drawing on research from BMWE- and LZN-funded projects ‘PV2Float’ and ‘FPV4Resilience’. 

In one of the earliest assessments of floating PV's potential, the World Bank and SERIS, in their Where Sun Meets Water report, estimated that installing systems on just 1% of man-made water bodies could yield 400 GW of capacity – rising to over 4 TW if extended to 10% (see World Bank: Gigantic Potential For Floating PV).  

Although the current share of FPV in the global solar PV installations remains limited, at only 0.5%, and is expected to remain stable in the medium term, Fraunhofer ISE analysts project significant long-term potential for this application.

According to most estimates, the total installed FPV capacity is expected to reach between 20 GW and 30 GW by 2030. Asia will be the dominant market, led by China and India. In Europe, the Netherlands will maintain its leading position. In 2023, Europe’s total installed FPV capacity was about 450 MW, while an additional 90 MW is planned to be installed by 2025.

In Germany, Fraunhofer ISE expects the country’s installable FPV capacity to range between 13.7 GW and 19.1 GW, with a 15% area coverage across industrially used bodies of water such as gravel pits and quarry lakes. Even disused, flooded open-cast mining lakes offer significant potential, it adds.

Currently, onshore FPV systems are more widespread than offshore, as they are closer to the land, can be easily tracked, and enjoy better access to grid infrastructure.

Offshore FPV is still being explored at a large scale, since such systems must operate in unprotected water with significant wave heights of over 2 m, and tough climatic conditions, not to mention saltwater corrosion. Solar systems designed for such an environment must be built using robust materials and innovative substructures, such as flexible membrane platforms that can adapt to wave movements. 

The guide also analyzes the sustainability potential of FPV technology by looking into its ecological, economic, and social dimensions. According to Fraunhofer ISE, PV modules constitute the largest chunk of an FPV system’s investment cost at 27%, followed by substructure’s 24%, and electrics at 14%, among other components. 

It reads, “The mass market allows manufacturers of specialty components to make their production more efficient by spreading fixed costs across a larger number of units. This lowers production costs, thereby increasing the technology's competitiveness in the market. Economies of scale can also help recoup investments in research and development and accelerate innovation cycles. Thus, cost reduction can accelerate the spread and acceptance of integrated PV technologies.”

The economic viability of FPV systems also depends on the business model pursued, be it self-consumption and grid feed-in, or power purchase agreements (PPA), hybridization, crowdfunding, and community participation, etc. 

Moreover, analysts also stress on assessing the environmental impacts of FPV since these play an important role in project clearance.

“In addition to technological developments, the guide provides information on current legal frameworks and answers questions about the economic viability of floating PV projects,” adds Group Leader for PV Power Plants at Fraunhofer ISE, Karolina Baltins. 

The complete guide, available in German, can be downloaded for free on Fraunhofer ISE’s website. 

In a November 2024 report, Wood Mackenzie projects the global FPV market to grow to 77 GW DC by 2033, led by Asia Pacific’s 57 GW DC (see Global Floating Solar Installed Capacity To Expand To 77 GW DC By 2033).