India added 34 GW DC of solar capacity in H1 2026, up 38% YoY, putting it on track to exceed 50 GW DC for the year, says Wood Mackenzie
Analysts flag limited availability of ALMM List-II-enlisted cells that could slow project development in H2 2026
The research firm expects utility-scale solar system prices to rise 20% by Q4 2026 as cell supply constraints tighten
India added 34 GW DC of solar PV capacity in H1 2026, 38% more than in the same period last year, putting the country on course for its biggest annual solar installation year, according to Wood Mackenzie. The research firm expects full-year solar additions to exceed 50 GW DC, surpassing the previous record of 49 GW DC set in 2025.
However, the rapid buildout is pressuring the domestic cell supply chain, particularly as the Approved List of Models and Manufacturers-II (ALMM-II) mandate took effect on June 1, 2026 (see India Brings ALMM List-II For Solar Cells Into Force).
The 34 GW DC added during H1 2026 reflected a concentrated effort by developers to commission projects before ALMM-II came into effect. Wood Mackenzie says that the installation push was also supported by changes to inter-state transmission charge waivers that fell from 75% to 50% for projects commissioned from July 2026 and scheduled to be phased out completely after July 2028.
The lack of adequate solar cell capacity enlisted under ALMM List-II is likely to hamper project development in H2 2026, according to Wood Mackenzie. As cell supply constraints tighten the market, utility-scale system prices are projected to rise 20% by Q4 2026.
Even as new cell capacity comes online, Wood Mackenzie expects insufficient utilization to keep supply below demand in 2027. The research firm expects India’s cell production to reach 29 GW in 2027, still 21 GW short of average annual module demand of 50 GW. As a result, system prices are forecast to decline by just 3% between Q4 2026 and Q4 2027.
“India's ALMM-II mandate is a bold step toward building a fully integrated domestic solar supply chain, but cell manufacturing capacity has simply not kept pace with modules,” said Sureet Singh, Research Analyst at Wood Mackenzie.
He adds, “The near-term cost impact is unavoidable, and developers will need to navigate a difficult transition period before prices stabilise.”
Yet, Singh believes MNRE’s exemptions for net-metering and open-access projects through December 31, 2026 could provide some upside to installations (see MNRE Grants ALMM Relief For Net-Metering, Open Access).
With Chinese solar cell supply to India restricted due to the ALMM List-II, cell imports have shifted to Southeast Asia. Wood Mackenzie said sourcing has shifted toward Southeast Asia, with Indonesian cell imports nearly tripling in early 2026.
Within 5M 2026, India imported 20 GW of cells and 5 GW of wafers. Wafer imports increased 86% year-on-year (YoY) as domestic manufacturers sought feedstock for cell production. The research firm warned that any delay in commissioning the 14 GW of cell capacity currently under construction could increase import dependence and push prices above its current forecast.
India is expected to add another 130 GW of cell capacity by 2029. This would require a 49% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from the 2026 full-build baseline of 88 GW.
“Prices are expected to stabilise through 2029 as additional cell capacity comes online, but the transition will require policy consistency and timely execution by manufacturers,” said Mathew Thomas, Research Analyst, Wood Mackenzie.
India is set to follow List-II with the planned ALMM-III, scheduled for June 2028, which will extend domestic-content requirements to solar wafers (see India To Enforce ALMM List-III For Ingots, Wafers On June 1, 2028).
