India could attract $89 billion in solar PV manufacturing investments by 2047, says ISMA in a new report
The proposed manufacturing expansion could generate 32.3 lakh direct and indirect jobs
ISMA’s Vision 2047 pathway projects India’s total installed solar PV capacity to reach 2,275 GW by 2047, compared with 1,370 GW under current policies
India’s solar PV manufacturing industry could attract $89 billion in new investments and generate 32.3 lakh in direct and indirect jobs by 2047 as the country progresses across the solar value chain. According to a new report by the Indian Solar Manufacturers Association (ISMA) that charts a long-term roadmap for the industry, by the middle of the next decade, India will have a fully vertically integrated solar value chain from polysilicon to modules.
Under the current policies, India’s total installed solar PV capacity will reach about 278 GW by 2030, close to the 292 GW goal, and reach approximately 1,370 GW by 2047. Currently, the country’s solar capacity stands at 171 GW.
ISMA projects additional electricity demand from new industries and infrastructure in its Vision 2047 pathway. If all planned programs are implemented in full, the report writers project India’s total installed solar PV capacity to rise to 330 GW by 2030, and about 2,275 GW by 2047. This will be enough to supply close to half of India's electricity demand.
This would require a substantial increase in manufacturing capabilities across the entire PV value chain.
As per the report, India’s total solar module production capacity will increase from over 233 GW now to 355 GW by 2030, and 3,484 GW by 2047 under its Vision 2047 pathway. Cell capacity will rise from over 50 GW to 205 GW by 2030, and 3,128 GW by 2047.
Ingot and wafer capacity will grow from more than 3 GW now to 56 GW by 2030 and 2,630 GW by 2047, while polysilicon capacity will rise from no capacity today to 20 GW by 2030 and 2,200 GW by 2047.
All of this will require a total PV manufacturing investment to grow from $8.4 billion invested under the Production Linked Incentive (PLI) to $89 billion by 2047. This translates into an average annual investment of approximately $4.3 billion between 2027 and 2047.
“On this pathway, India installs many times more solar; its solar PV manufacturing plants employ many more people, and almost all of the value of each panel stays in the country,” reads the report.
Expanding domestic manufacturing is also expected to reduce India’s dependence on imported solar components. It estimates that India’s annual solar import bill, currently around $4.4 billion, is projected to decline by more than 95% by the early 2040s, but under the Vision 2047 pathway, it could reach zero by 2041.
India could account for 26.5% of the global solar module supply by 2047, says ISMA, against 14% under the current policy scenario. However, it adds that exports have dropped sharply after trade and geopolitical shocks in the country’s key export markets. The report reads, “A wider and more diverse base of overseas customers would give Indian plants steadier earnings, larger scale and less exposure to any single market.”
ISMA identifies policy certainty, sustained domestic demand, and timely implementation of manufacturing programs as key to achieving its projections. It also calls on the government to maintain predictable timelines under the Approved List of Models and Manufacturers (ALMM) and complete PLI-supported projects.
The complete report, titled India’s Solar Manufacturing Vision 2047, is available for free download on ISMA’s website.
In a recent report, the IEA said that India could account for half of global module manufacturing capacity outside China by 2030 (see IEA: India Can Help Diversify Global Solar PV Supply Chains).