India’s annual solar PV installations are expected to reach 50 GW during 2026–2030.
Domestic PV module capacity reaches 144 GW, but raw material dependence persists
Indian PV manufacturers outperformed Chinese peers in profitability during 2024–2025
TaiyangNews successfully concluded its flagship Solar Technology Conference India 2026 (STC.I 2026), held in New Delhi on February 5th & 6th, discussing the rapid evolution of India’s giga-scale solar manufacturing ecosystem and its path ahead. Among the highlights was a dedicated session titled Market Overview – Supply, Demand and Price Dynamics, where Indian analysts from EUPD Research (Rajan Kalsotra), Rystad Energy (Sushma Jagannath), Wood Mackenzie (Sureet Singh), and S&P Global (Abhyuday Tewari) shared their views on the latest developments in the world’s third-largest solar market, which has quickly emerged as a major module manufacturer as well. We have summarized the findings of this session in 10 key takeaways, listed below.
The session opened with a clear message of India’s strong PV installation demand in the upcoming years. Looking at historical data from the Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE), India’s yearly PV installation demand was hovering around 8-12 GW per year until 2022. However, the situation has changed drastically since 2024, and we now see 35 GW of PV already installed in FY 2025-26 (Apr-Jan). This momentum is forecast to continue, with the country expected to install approximately 50 GW per year on average and reach around 252 GW DC by 2030, according to EUPD Research.
Takeaway: India targets 280 GW AC of solar PV installations by 2030, and the country has already installed 140 GW AC (as per MNRE) by January 2026. Drivers of this demand are the government’s reverse PV auction programs, high-cost conventional electricity, rapid expansion of the commercial and industrial (C&I) sector, and residential PV subsidy schemes. While this means India would need less than the current annual averages to reach its target, it’s likely that the country will exceed it. With India’s plans to commission around 8 GW of data centers by 2030, power demand is expected to increase starting in 2027, necessitating additional power generation capacity. Moreover, the rooftop market is also quickly developing now. However, grid infrastructure development and monitoring PV curtailment issues will also be important.
Grid constraints are becoming a critical challenge both globally and in India. According to Rystad data, India curtailed over 250 GWh of solar PV in 2025, while China’s curtailment rose 60% year on year. This underscores the urgent need for expanded transmission capacity, energy storage, and grid flexibility to accommodate growing renewable generation.
Takeaway: With rising demand for PV installations, there has also been a rise in PV curtailment issues. To address the issue, the Government of India has initiated the ‘Green Energy Corridor’ project, aimed at connecting solar-rich states with the national grid. This project has already entered Phase II, wherein 20 GW of renewable energy capacity will be integrated to the grid by the end of 2026. Under Phase II, the target is to develop 2,800 km of new corridors and 35 substations within the given timeline.
With just 12 GW of local module manufacturing capacity in 2020, the country has expanded to 144 GW by 2025. This exponential growth has largely been driven by supportive government policies, including the Approved List of Models and Manufacturers (ALMM) mandate, the Production Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme, and the Basic Customs Duty (BCD) framework. According to industry estimates, local module manufacturing capacity could exceed 279 GW by 2030, and cell capacity could grow from 27 GW in 2025 to 171 GW by 2030.
Takeaway: As domestic PV module supply grows faster than annual installation demand, an oversupply situation will develop in the near term. The forecast holds true for cells as well, which is expected to reach 171 GW by 2030. However, in contrast to the above graph, we believe wafer supply may increase drastically post-2028, accounting for ALMM List-III for wafers coming into effect by then.
Even though India achieved 144 GW of module manufacturing capacity by 2025, it continues to depend on China for raw materials. In 2025 alone, India imported 49.5 GW of cells and 30 GW of wafers from China, as per EUPD Research.
Takeaway: A review of historical data shows that in 2023, India imported approximately 16 GW of PV modules, despite a domestic manufacturing capacity of 8-10 GW. Module imports began to decline following the implementation of ALMM List I in April 2024. Cell imports are expected to follow a similar trend, with volumes declining after the implementation of ALMM List II in June 2026. Wafer imports are likely to continue until 2028, after which the government plans to introduce its ALMM III list (see also figure #3). However, for upstream components such as ingots and polysilicon, the supply gap is projected to persist even beyond 2030.
As per Wood Mackenzie data, 97% of Indian module exports went to the US in 2024. However, exports dropped from 4.5 GW in 2024 to 2.9 GW in Q1-Q3 2025, due to tariff pressures and ongoing investigations. High US tariffs have already reduced export volumes, which are expected to decline further in 2026 unless both governments reach a mutual agreement. The US government has initiated Anti-Dumping (AD) and Countervailing Duty (CVD) investigations in August 2025 against India, Indonesia, and Laos. Whereas the preliminary CVD rate for India was set at 126% in February and a final determination is expected for July, the preliminary AD determination is expected for April (see India, Indonesia, Laos Solar Imports Face High US CVD Rates).
Takeaway: India’s export concentration in the US is its biggest near-term vulnerability, unless the manufacturers diversify their export markets. Europe and Southeast Asia could be the next target markets for Indian suppliers. However, maintaining high quality standards, R&D in PV model upgrades, and price parity with their Chinese counterparts will be crucial for local manufacturers.
Indian solar module manufacturers have been narrowing the long-standing cost gap with China, driven by expanding domestic production capacity, improved manufacturing efficiencies, and supportive government policies, according to a Fraunhofer report, presented by EUPD.
Takeaway: While India is becoming more competitive, most manufacturers still use Chinese equipment, and Chinese manufacturers continue to sell at significantly lower prices. However, as major markets such as the US and potentially Europe implement protectionist measures against Chinese products, India will be well-positioned to benefit, provided it can consistently deliver high-quality products.
From a pricing perspective, Indian module manufacturing costs remained approximately 11% higher than China in Q2 2025, underscoring China’s continued structural cost advantage driven by scale, supply-chain integration, and financing efficiencies. However, market pricing dynamics have shifted as well. The India-China spot price gap narrowed from 9 euro ¢/W in Q1 2024 to 4.9 euro ¢/W by February 2026. This has been possible only because of the Indian government’s policy support, market protection, and incentives for local manufacturing.
Takeaway: Indian module prices have quickly decreased, narrowing the price gap to their Chinese competitors. But this was only possible because of government support. Another challenge will arise when the ALMM for cells will be implemented in June 2026, so that only domestic cells can be used for module production. The crucial question at that time will be whether the ratio of module performance to cost will remain sufficient to maintain, or further reduce, the price gap. However, as long as the Indian market is protected and resilience criteria in other markets offer export opportunities for Indian modules, prices will not be determined by cost.
While leading Chinese module manufacturers mostly reported losses in 2024-2025 amid intense price competition and prolonged oversupply, Indian PV manufacturers demonstrated stronger profitability trends during this period. However, according to EUPD Research, this advantage could be short-term because of an aggravating overcapacity situation in India.
Takeaway: Indian PV manufacturers are reporting higher profit margins due to import restrictions and PLI incentives compared with their Chinese competition. At the same time, Indian manufacturers are cautious, operating at only 50-60% of their capacity and accepting orders only on ‘made to order’ terms. However, the future well-being of Indian companies will depend largely on the development of trade barriers in the US, Europe, and other markets against Chinese incumbents.
As the European Union intensifies its focus on supply-chain resilience, policy developments are creating opportunities for alternative manufacturing hubs. Under the EU’s Net-Zero Industry Act (NZIA), resilience-based procurement criteria could unlock an annual demand of approximately 3 GW, favoring diversified and non-dominant suppliers, according to EUPD Research.
Takeaway: Indian PV manufacturers have an advantage in emissions intensity of module shipments to Europe over their Chinese competition. If India succeeds in keeping pace with next-generation PV technology, the European market could emerge as a stable and long-term export destination for its products.
The session concluded with all 4 speakers sharing a common view that India’s PV growth is no longer centered on mere capacity expansion. Instead, the focus has shifted toward deeper upstream integration, continuous efficiency upgrades, stronger ESG transparency, diversification of export markets, alignment with energy storage solutions, and a more strategic, long-term positioning in the global landscape. And the common message that resonated across each presentation: Indian manufacturers must move from volume-driven growth to value-driven competitiveness.
At STC.I 2026, the Indian market was framed not just as a growth narrative, but as a pivotal strategic turning point.
Demand is strong
Manufacturing is booming
Global prices are under pressure
Trade tensions are reshaping flows
Europe is opening doors
Profitability is fragile
India is on the way to becoming the world’s second-biggest PV manufacturing hub. Export opportunities, price competitiveness, and keeping pace with next-generation PV technology will determine the future of this country’s export ambitions.
