SEIA believes that in its present form, the Reconciliation Bill could risk $220 billion of solar and storage investments in the US
It could impact nearly 300,000 jobs, including 86,000 in solar PV manufacturing
The US would cede AI and tech leadership to China if the bill is cleared, while increasing the risk of blackouts by deliberately creating an energy shortage
The association urges Congress to revise the bill to protect clean energy growth
Energy Innovation Policy & Technology estimates a significant decline in new power generation capacity that could drive up wholesale power prices by 50% by 2035
The US House Ways and Means Committee’s proposed Reconciliation Bill to bring down federal incentives for the country’s renewable energy industry could jeopardize nearly 300 solar and storage factories, according to the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA).
The association fears that if the legislation passes without any critical changes, these projects may either be closed or cancelled altogether, erasing $220 billion in local investments in the solar and storage sectors by 2030. Nearly 300,000 current and future American jobs may be lost, including 86,000 in solar manufacturing.
According to the association’s analysis that fears the bill dismantling the ‘greatest industrial revival in US history’, close to 80% of all at-risk factories, jobs and investments in the solar manufacturing sector are located in states that voted for President Donald Trump.
Proposed as part of The One, Big, Beautiful Bill, the Reconciliation Bill legislation proposes an earlier phase-out of investment tax credits for the solar industry, advancing the elimination by a year. According to Wood Mackenzie’s analysis, this may hinder financing avenues for US solar manufacturers (see Wood Mackenzie: Tax Credit Phaseout May Hinder US Solar Growth).
Going by the growing demand for electricity, SEIA says that the US would need 206.5 GW of new energy capacity by 2030, with solar expected to supply 73% of these additions. However, the proposed legislation can lead to the loss of 145 TWh of solar generation, leading to higher utility bills.The loss of solar and storage capacity can lead the US to experience massive energy shortages that can raise risks of blackouts, according to SEIA’s new analysis.
Another feared impact is on the residential segment if the bill repeals the Section 25D residential tax credit. “Repealing it leaves households with no accessible path to lower their costs with solar,” states the association.
In a separate analysis, energy and environment policy think tank Energy Innovation Policy & Technology believes passing the reconciliation bill in its present form will bring down total new electricity capacity additions by 114 GW by 2030, and 302 GW by 2035. This includes a 33 GW decrease in solar capacity, of which 4 GW is distributed solar, a 78 GW decrease in wind capacity, and a 7 GW decrease in battery storage by 2030.
By 2035, new capacity installations are expected to fall by 95 GW for solar, of which 5 GW is distributed, 205 GW for wind, and 14 GW for battery storage.
The think tank estimates a roughly 50% increase in wholesale power prices by 2035 owing to the loss of new capacity and higher fossil fuel prices, at a time when the total US electricity demand is forecast to go up by 15.8% or 128 GW in the next 4 years. Clean energy accounted for more than 90% of all new capacity added to the grid in 2024.
In the absence of clean energy sources, utilities will not be able to bring online new generation capacity in time to meet this demand in the absence of clean energy sources, points out the think tank. Moreover, apart from no fuel costs, wind and solar have lower operation and maintenance (O&M) costs than fossil-fueled power plants, which ensures they push down overall power prices.
Its calculations suggest that the 2025 Reconciliation Bill could raise US energy costs by $16 billion annually by 2030, escalating to $33 billion by 2035, impacting households nationwide.
“Changes in federal energy tax credits and fossil fuel land leasing would decrease deployment of low-cost clean electricity and increase the share of electricity coming from fossil fuel power plants, thus increasing electricity generation prices. The higher demand for fossil fuels raises prices for those fuels which, in turn, makes electricity generation using those fuels even costlier,” explains the Energy Innovation analysis.
SEIA demands that Congress revise the legislation to protect investments in the solar and storage industries.
“Passing this bill would create a catastrophic energy shortfall, cede AI and tech leadership to China, and damage some of the most vital sectors of the U.S. economy,” said SEIA President and CEO, Abigail Ross Hopper.“But the story isn’t over. The Senate has the opportunity to put forward a more thoughtful and measured proposal that achieves President Trump’s American energy dominance vision.”
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