Repowering existing solar power plants could unlock significant solar and dispatchable battery capacity by 2040, according to a new Crux and Foundry-Logic report
According to the assessment, existing land, permits and grid connections could help reduce project costs and development time
C&I distributed generation offer near-term opportunity, while utility-scale projects gain a larger share over time
Repowering existing solar power plants in the US offers a huge opportunity for the country to meet its rising electricity demand with solar and storage. According to a new report by Crux and Foundry-Logic, this could unlock the equivalent of 67 GW AC of new solar and 91.7 GW AC of dispatchable battery storage capacity by 2040.
In the interim, by 2030 repowering could drive equivalent of 9.6 GW AC of new solar and 13.1 GW AC of dispatchable battery capacity, rising to 29 GW AC and 41.4 GW AC by 2035, respectively.
The report writers see repowering as an opportunity at a time when the first generation of US solar plants come to an end of their life. This is happening at a time when the grid can least afford to lose capacity. It identifies two key factors supporting the case for repowering.
First, technological advances mean today’s solar modules deliver 50% more power from the same footprint, while battery costs have fallen 90% over the past decade. Battery pairing is also increasing in the US. According to the report, 22% of new solar capacity planned for H1 2026 is designed to co-locate battery energy storage, while the number goes up to 48% of projects scheduled for 2029.
Second, repowering allows plants to retain existing land, permits, and grid connections, avoiding lengthy new development processes and bringing down capex. The report estimates that a full repower costs about 20% less per watt than building a new project. Although there will be additional costs related to removing existing modules, it will help avoid major costs such as land acquisition, grid interconnection applications, and substation construction.
Batteries can also use existing grid connections, making repowering an opportunity for older plants to add storage at lower cost.
According to the report, the near-term repowering opportunity is largest in the commercial and industrial (C&I) distributed generation (DG) segment. This segment is expected to account for 52% of the total US solar repowering capacity potential by 2030. Together DG and residential solar account for 5.3 GW AC of 9.6 GW AC of the estimated potential in 2030, according to the analysts.
By 2040, utility-scale projects are expected to account for nearly two-thirds of the 67 GW AC opportunity as older plants reach repowering age. California, North Carolina, and Arizona lead the market in 2030. The opportunity is initially concentrated in a few states but is expected to spread across more of the US over time.
For battery storage, it is California, North Carolina and Arizona that offer the greatest opportunity from solar powering in 2030.
The solar repowering market, according to the analysts, is expected to be worth $10.8 billion annually in 2030, growing to $51.8 billion by 2040 at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17%. They expect cumulative spending at around $346 billion between 2026 and 2040. Battery additions or replacement represent nearly half of the spend, as per the report titled Recharged: Repowering America's Solar Fleet with Storage for a New Era of Demand.
Repowering can extend a solar plant’s operating life by 15 years or more, often beyond the terms of its existing power purchase agreement (PPA) and land lease. Hence, the writers recommend owners to extend or replace these agreements, depending on their existing terms.
The report says solar repowering projects will generally no longer qualify for federal solar tax credits from 2028, unless they meet the applicable construction-start (July 4, 2026) or commissioning (in service by December 31, 2027) deadlines. However, battery storage added to existing solar sites can qualify independently for the full investment tax credit (ITC) under Section 48E through 2033, phasing to 75% in 2034, and 50% in 2035. These credits can also be sold under transferability mechanism.
The complete report is available for free download on Crux’s website.
Wood Mackenzie expects more than 2.5 TW of existing solar and wind energy projects to reach the end of their operating lives by the 2040s. This will create a major replacement market, accounting for 23% of all solar installations globally (see 2.5 TW Aging Renewables To Drive New Solar, Wind Demand).
