Backed by strong policy environment and financial incentives, India is likely to grow its solar cell production capacity 7-fold to 32 GW by the end of 2024 up from 4.7 GW till September 2022 with overall module manufacturing capacity expected to reach 95 GW in 2025 led by Gujarat, says Mercom India Research in a new report.
Moreover, expect significant capacities of polysilicon, ingots and wafers to also come online by the end of 2024 as Production Linked Incentive (PLI) Scheme tranche I projects start to come online as projects to be awarded under tranche II will contribute more to this space (see India Launches PLI Tranche II Solar Manufacturing Tender).
Its estimates build on announced module manufacturing capacity expansion plans of over 39 GW till the end of September 2022. In its report State of Solar PV Manufacturing in India, Mercom attributes the growing interest in local solar manufacturing to the mandates of Approved List of Models and Manufacturers (ALMM), and domestic content requirement (DCR) for projects that are increasing demand for locally produced panels.
At the same time, imposition of basic customs duty (BCD) on imported solar modules has also helped improve the price competitiveness of local products. Production Linked Incentive (PLI) Scheme is also incentivizing vertical integration of new capacity additions and technology used, it adds.
Additionally, states have their own solar policies and financial incentives to promote manufacturing zones in their own.
Most of the module production capacity announcements have been for the State of Gujarat, led by both Reliance Industries Limited (RIL) and Adani Group building Gigafactories here. The home state of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is likely to remain the major producer of PV products over the next 2 years to 3 years, according to Mercom.
Technology wise, manufacturers in India are towing the line of the global PV market that's moving away from PERC with plans to build large scale TOPCon (for instance Websol), thin film (like First Solar) and heterojunction (HJT) (as Reliance New Energy Solar) modules. Mercom estimates these modules to be 'widely available' in the Indian market by 2025 with M10 and M12/G12 sized wafers gaining significant market share over the next 2 years to 3 years.
"With an estimates 220 GW of solar capacity required by the end of the decade, India needs significant manufacturing capacity ramp up," said Mercom India's Managing Director Priyadarshini Sanjay. According to the Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE), India's aggregate installed solar power capacity had grown to over 63.3 GW on December 31, 2022.
She added, "Manufacturers planning expansion are considering the lucrative export market along with the domestic demand. However, developers and installers need short-term and long-term visibility to develop a viable sourcing strategy."
Complete report can be purchased from Mercom's website.
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