- JETP’s draft CIPP proposes a strategic blueprint for Indonesia for a just energy transition to net zero
- Solar PV is proposed to command the largest share of 264.6 GW by 2050, ahead of 65.4 GW hydropower and 44 GW wind energy
- Local solar PV manufacturing is a must to meet the deployment levels needed, but starting with cell and module capacity a more practical approach
The island nation of Indonesia aims to install around 265 GW solar PV while going off coal and oil completely to achieve a net-zero emissions power sector by 2050. Solar PV will lead the country’s efforts to have renewable energy account for 44% of the total energy mix by 2030 under a strategic blueprint launched by the government.
Unveiled by the Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP) Secretariat, the Comprehensive Investment and Policy Plan (CIPP) titled Accelerating Just Energy Transition in Indonesia 2023 sets an on-grid emissions target and pathway for Indonesia.
Under the proposed plan, Indonesia will specifically target 264.6 GW solar PV capacity by 2050, up from 0.1 GW installed in 2022. Hydropower follows next with 65.4 GW, and wind with 44 GW, among other power sources of choice.
According to the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (MEMR), the country holds a solar PV potential of 3.28 TW. It also pegs 28.4 GW floating solar PV potential on lakes or reservoirs.
Considering the land availability challenges for ground mounted solar PV in the country, the draft proposes to scale up distributed rooftop solar PV in the commercial & industrial and residential segments, ‘if the regulation allows’. Of the 265 GW proposed, a potential of around 75 GW could be contributed by distributed rooftop solar, according to the draft report.
It would need huge scaling up of rooftop solar from about 100 MW the ministry believes the country had installed till June 2023. The Institute for Essential Services Reform (IESR) pegs the total technical rooftop potential in the country at 354 GW. This, however, would require new revenue model for the PLN as the current model can cause a revenue loss for the state-owned electricity distributor.
According to the draft writers, “In the JETP scenario, solar PV is expected to become the most dynamic source of clean energy in Indonesia as installed capacity rises from less than 1 GW to 29 GW by 2030, and 265 GW in 2050. Annual average capacity additions rise to around 4 GW until 2030, 7 GW over 2031-40 and 17 GW over 2041-2050. However, Indonesia currently has only 2 GW of equipment manufacturing to support this growth, due to persistent uncertainties over the market for solar PV power projects.”
Solar PV manufacturing
Indonesia also sees this huge deployment of solar capacity to have the potential for the development of large-scale PV supply chain. At present, the country has about 2 GW crystalline silicon PV module assembly capacity but not upstream capacity.
Instead of going full-on into upstream manufacturing, Indonesia could look at expanding cell and module assembly factories to meet module demand initially as these can be set up relatively quickly. “Expansion to wafer and polysilicon manufacturing could be considered later to bring further cost efficiencies resulting from supply chain integration,” recommend the report writers.
Investments
To realize the on-grid power sector, the writers estimate $95.9 billion investment in 5 investment focus areas (IFA) between 2023 and 2030, and $580.3 billion between 2023 and 2050. Part of these costs are covered by the $20 billion committed at the G20 Summit in 2022 by the International Partners Group (IPG) comprising international governments and the EU.
Up to $49.2 billion of this is estimated to be incurred on dispatchable renewable energy acceleration by 2030, with 16.1 GW capacity as one of the IFAs. The variable renewable energy acceleration of 40.4 GW by 2030 is likely to cost up to $25.7 billion. Renewable energy supply chain enhancement is also one of the IFAs.
Comments to the public consultation draft, available on JETP Indonesia’s website, will be accepted till November 14, 2023.
