Key takeaways:
Cost gaps between European and imported modules are narrowing, supported by automation and specialized PV applications
Back-contact technology may find early adoption in high-value segments such as BIPV and residential applications
Policy clarity and stronger supply-side support remain critical to scaling PV manufacturing in Europe
The Becquerel Institute, a consulting and applied research firm, was one of the partners in the IBC4EU project. At the TaiyangNews IBC4EU Conference, Philippe Macé presented the manufacturing cost gap for interdigitated back contact (IBC) technology in Europe.
He started by pointing out that the European manufacturing cost gap compared to other regions is narrowing with automation and scale. He highlighted an example that about 2-3 GW of EU module manufacturing has survived €0.10/W-priced imported modules. This is partly attributed to the increasing adoption of specialized PV applications such as residential, building-integrated PV (BIPV), and other integrated PV applications, which are no longer niche. There are also policy measures underway, even though much work remains to be done.
Based on these 3 key attributes of economics, market, and policy, Macé illustrated the pathway for back-contact (BC) manufacturing in Europe.
Mainstream module prices in the EU have been increasing by about 20% in the last 6 months. They are currently about 5-10 euro cents/W higher than imported modules. It was analyzed that lower integration with upstream manufacturing has reduced the cost gap in the current scenario. At this point, BC technology, which already carries a cost premium, especially for European manufacturing, along with its efficiency advantages, can be viable in the right segments, according to Macé and ISC Konstanz. These applications include residential building-attached PV (BAPV), BIPV, commercial & industrial (C&I) BAPV, and vehicle-integrated PV (VIPV). Additionally, Macé said that grid-connected PV, including AgriPV, ground-mounted, floating, residential, and C&I, using IBC technology is expected to increase, representing half of the demand through 2050.
Talking about policy, Macé specifically mentioned the Net Zero Industry Act (NZIA) and the Industry Accelerator Act (IAA), and how these can support or create bottlenecks in driving BC manufacturing in Europe. While NZIA’s objective is to create a 40% reserved market for the EU, Macé states that it is still unclear how much of this share will be allocated to EU-made resilient products. There are 5 countries that have already taken advantage of these regulations by issuing bonus schemes, reduced VAT on sustainable products, et cetera. However, if NZIA regulations are implemented across all 27 EU member states, it could create an annual market of 18-35 GW across the residential, C&I, and utility segments by 2030.
The policy-related gaps currently blocking growth potential in Europe are linked to proposals from the IAA. Macé highlighted that the IAA allows non-EU partner countries in trade agreements with the EU to receive the same preferential treatment as local producers. The scope of IAA is restricted to cells and inverters only, and its solar provisions will begin to apply only from 2030. Moreover, the gap on the supply side, with the absence of guarantees, production-linked incentives, and other supply-side mechanisms – similar to those used in other regions to build the PV industry – remains a key issue under NZIA, according to Macé.
If these issues are fully addressed, with support mechanisms on the supply side and regulatory updates, and if all member states implement the regulations, then manufacturing growth can meet the projected demand in the EU through 2050, reaching about 64 GW in an ambitious scenario. Macé also projected ‘conservative’ and ‘stay-in-the-game’ (current pathway) scenarios, which do not meet the demand, with only 32 GW and 16 GW, respectively, by 2050.
Macé concluded his talk, titled BC in Europe: Market Outlook Meets Industrial Ambition, by stating that IAA regulations need to be fixed. At the same time, the implementation of NZIA needs to be accelerated by all EU member states. One key point is to make sustainability a differentiator, which can be an advantage for local manufacturing.
