Key takeaways:
n-Type dominates the technology landscape as wafer formats grow larger and thinner
Process and material efficiencies, including reduced silver use, homogeneous emitter, and cleaning approaches, continue to shape cell manufacturing
Module efficiencies and global PV capacity are expected to rise steadily, with long-term installations projected to reach 63 TWp by 2050
At the TaiyangNews Virtual Conference on Cell & Module Production Equipment & Processing Materials, Markus Fischer from ITRPV presented an overview of the latest trends in the PV market. As part of the 16th edition of ITRPV, based on contributions from about 50 companies, the PV learning curve shows 700 GW of modules shipped in 2024 at $0.08/W. This is expected to increase slightly at the end of 2025, stabilizing at $0.09/W with 750 GW shipments. Fischer shared that a notable share of the shipped modules is used for repowering. He illustrated this with a repowering example from Germany, where fewer modules were needed to replace an older system due to higher efficiencies, meaning that repowering does not necessarily increase total installed capacity.
Crystalline Silicon and Wafers
Talking about technology trends, Fischer emphasized that n-type technology is now mainstream, while some p-type is still in the market. The latter is forecast to occupy less than 5% by 2035. He also discussed evolving wafer formats, noting that traditional formats such as M6 have nearly disappeared, while larger formats like G12 and G12R now hold the biggest market share and are expected to dominate going forward. Wafer thickness reductions remain an important trend: p-type wafers are flattening out at around 130 μm, while n-type technologies increasingly move toward 120 μm, with some early examples reaching 110 μm. These shifts create new challenges for equipment suppliers, who must adapt their tools to reliably process thinner wafers.
Cell Technology
Fischer underlined that TOPCon has become the dominant technology, with PERC expected to fall below 20% market share by 2025. Other n-type technologies, such as heterojunction (HJT) and back-contact designs, continue to grow. All major new cell architectures are naturally compatible with bifacial operation. However, the persistent issue of overcapacity means that new cell manufacturing expansions can only occur by replacing existing lines, placing additional pressure on equipment suppliers to support the technology transition efficiently.
Process
For TOPCon, boron diffusion remains the standard. And while selective emitters were once important, the rise of technologies such as LECO – now nearly fully adopted – is making homogenous emitters the preferred future approach.
In wet chemistry, chemical edge isolation processes are rapidly phasing out HF/HNO₃ mixtures in favor of alkaline etching, inline HF + batch KOH. Ozone-based cleaning is gaining market share across both TOPCon and heterojunction cell production.
Fischer also discussed developments in ALD for Al₂O₃ passivation and amorphous silicon deposition for TOPCon, with future tool concepts expected to shape equipment choices. In terms of equipment performance, wet bench tools currently lead throughput benchmarks, but ALD tool throughputs are expected to rise dramatically, potentially up to 18,000 wafers/hour. Boron diffusion tools currently operate at lower throughputs but are expected to improve.
Materials
Silver, the most expensive non-silicon material in cells and modules, is seeing substantial reductions. The ITRPV defines minimum acceptable silver consumption levels, and current tier-1 manufacturers already meet or exceed these requirements. According to the World Silver Survey, global PV silver consumption last year amounted to 6,000 tons, corresponding to 9 mg/W (700 GW shipments), which is below ITRPV’s minimum threshold, indicating no foreseeable supply shortage. Continued reductions are driven by:
Ultra-fine-line screen printing (down to 7 µm),
Increasing busbars (above 18BB) & ZBB,
Transition toward copper-based metallization, including silver-coated copper and, in the future, pure copper.
Metallization tool throughputs at around 7,500 wafers/hour today are expected to rise to 13,000 wafers/hour.
Fischer noted that improvements in n-type technologies will push TOPCon efficiencies toward 26%, with HJT and interdigitated back contact (IBC) following closely. To exceed single-junction limits, tandem cell technologies are expected to rise after 2026, potentially achieving efficiencies above 32%.
On the module side, glass-glass modules continue to gain market share, particularly with TOPCon and HJT products. POE/ POE-EVA mix are expected to dominate the encapsulant share to reach 80% by 2035. The half-cell architecture is now standard, and edge passivation for cut cells is emerging as a way to improve module efficiencies further. The mature single-junction modules are expected to reach around 24% efficiency, while tandem-based modules may exceed 26% as these technologies mature.
At the system level, Fischer concluded that although rooftop and utility remain dominant applications, new segments such as Agri-PV, building-integrated PV (BIPV), and floating PV are gradually expanding. The levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) continues to decline, reaching below $0.05/kWh even in regions with moderate irradiation, placing the industry well ahead of previous IEA projections.
Looking to the long term, the ITRPV expects global cumulative PV installations to reach 63 TWp by 2050, and current shipment volumes remain on track with this projection.
