ITRPV Sees PV Shipments Stabilize At 706 GW In 2025

The global solar PV industry shipped approximately 706 GW of modules in 2025, according to the 17^th edition of the International Technology Roadmap for Photovoltaics (ITRPV) published by VDMA. The report incorporates input from 38 companies, including polysilicon suppliers, wafer manufacturers, cell and module producers, equipment suppliers, research institutes, and consultants.

Global crystalline silicon manufacturing capacity exceeded 1,230 GW for polysilicon, ingot, and wafer production; 1,260 GW for cells; and 1,460 GW for modules by the end of 2025. Crystalline silicon technologies hold around 98% of the global PV market. Module shipments remained largely stable at 706 GW in 2025, while installations reached 668 GW (see Solar PV Industry Sets 703 GW Shipment Record in 2024).

TOPCon remained the dominant technology in 2025, while PERC's decline continued. With around 14% market share, PERC is expected to disappear over the next decade. TOPCon is projected to retain around 50% market share by 2036. BC technologies are expected to increase their share to as much as 28% over the same period, with TOPCon-based BC technologies forecast to be more widely adopted than Silicon Heterojunction (SHJ)-based BC. Silicon-based tandem technologies are expected to exceed 17% market share by 2036.

Current module efficiencies reach around 23.5% for TOPCon and SHJ products and 24.1% for TOPCon-based BC modules. Over the next decade, module efficiencies are projected to increase to approximately 26.0% for TOPCon, 26.4% for SHJ, and 26.6% for BC modules, while single-junction technologies overall are expected to approach 26.3%. Tandem technologies are expected to enter mass production around 2027, with module efficiencies projected to reach about 27.4% by 2028. Larger G12-format wafers enabled module power classes of up to 730 W in 2025, compared to 720 W in the previous edition.

After a sharp decline in 2024 driven by overcapacity and intense competition, module prices increased slightly in 2025. The weighted average c-Si module spot price rose by around 9% year-on-year to $0.09/W. According to the report, premiums for high-power, bifacial, and n-type modules have largely disappeared.

Silver consumption remains a key focus area for the industry as manufacturers seek to reduce costs and improve material availability. The roadmap projects continued reductions in metallization silver consumption, supported by advances in finer metallization, LECO-assisted contact formation, and copper-based metallization technologies. TOPCon cells are expected to reduce silver usage from around 10 mg/W in 2025 to 6.3 mg/W by 2036, while SHJ cells are projected to decline from 12.0 mg/W to 4.3 mg/W. The report also highlights silver-coated copper, copper-containing metallization, and pure-copper approaches as emerging alternatives to conventional silver metallization. According to the roadmap, the 706 GW of modules shipped in 2025 contained approximately 7,244 tons of silver, equivalent to around 21.4% of global silver supply.

Depending on the wafer format, polysilicon consumption is projected to decline by around 26% over the next decade due to thinner wafers and improved manufacturing yields. The report estimates polysilicon consumption could fall to approximately 1.27 g/W for M10 wafers, 1.29 g/W for G12R wafers, and 1.39 g/W for G12 wafers by 2036. At the same time, the share of Fluidized Bed Reactor (FBR) polysilicon production is expected to increase from about 15% in 2025 to around 28% by 2036, while the Siemens process remains the dominant production technology. The roadmap also forecasts continued adoption of large-format wafers, with G12 and G12R expected to account for most of the market by 2036. Diamond wire sawing is projected to remain the mainstream wafering technology.

At the module level, the report highlights the continued trend toward larger formats, particularly for utility-scale applications. Modules sized between 2.5 m² and 3.0 m² are projected to account for about 48% of the utility-scale market by 2036, while modules larger than 3 m² are expected to account for 47% of the market. In contrast, modules smaller than 2.5 m² are forecast to decline to around 6% of the market. The roadmap attributes this trend to the industry's focus on increasing power output and reducing system-level costs through larger module formats.

Based on historical module price and shipment data from 1976 to 2025, ITRPV calculated a photovoltaic learning rate of 26.0%, slightly higher than the 25.8% reported in the previous edition. Looking only at the 2006–2025 period, the learning rate increased to 40.8%, reflecting the rapid scale-up of PV manufacturing and continued technology improvements over the past 2 decades. The authors noted that maintaining this trend will depend on further efficiency gains, cost reductions, and the adoption of new cell and module technologies.

Access the full ITRPV report here.