Live Blog - July 17, 2025: Global Solar Market Developments 2025 – H1 Review & H2 Outlook

Join us for the Distributed & Smart Solar Conference 2025, hosted by TaiyangNews. We’ll dive into the latest innovations, business models, and policies shaping the solar future across residential, commercial, and industrial segments. Registration is free – sign up here!

During a panel discussion with TaiyangNews Managing Director Michael Schmela, Sungrow Europe’s Head of Market Research, Frank Du, pointed to persistent permitting issues in Europe, but said the company is aligned with the EU’s NZIA local manufacturing drive and wants to support customers in securing resilience auction points. Rystad Energy Vice President Marius Bakke views regional diversification as the way forward for solar manufacturing. AECEA Director Frank Haugwitz emphasized R&D and innovation as key to manufacturers’ survival. 

China saw a 150% YoY installation spike from Jan–May 2025, driven by the June 1, 2025 shift to fully market-based electricity tariffs. Installations have dipped monthly since, but AECEA Director Frank Haugwitz remains bullish—total 2025 volumes could reach 330 GW, even 350 GW. The 80% green power mandate for data centers is among factors that will keep solar demand strong going forward. 

AECEA Director Frank Haugwitz expects China’s solar oversupply to last longer than anticipated. While older production lines are being phased out slowly, new HJT and perovskite capacities continue to ramp up. Zhejiang region alone aims to add 55 GW of cell and 42 GW of module capacity in 2025. Meanwhile, industry consolidation is yet to unfold. To remain relevant in business, companies will have to keep burning cash.

Germany’s solar pipeline is holding steady, but falling power prices and waning residential demand are slowing things down. Meanwhile, Spain’s policy shifts and Portugal’s VAT rollback are causing project delays, says Sungrow Europe’s Head of Market Research, Frank Du.

Sungrow Europe’s Head of Market Research, Frank Du, lists key challenges in EMEA’s PV market, including delays from grid connections and permits, to falling electricity prices, and stricter supplier expectations amid growing demand for ESS and innovative hybrid PV+storage projects.

TOPCon Gains Ground As West Bets on HJT

While the global shift is clearly moving towards TOPCon, largely driven by Chinese manufacturers, Europe and North America risk falling behind technologically as they continue ramping up HJT capacity. Rystad Energy VP Marius Bakke cautions that new policies restricting Chinese suppliers in certain markets could create a significant technology gap.

Rystad Energy’s VP Marius Bakke expects global solar PV additions to reach 655 GW DC in 2025 – a solid jump from 554 GW DC last year. However, with policy changes taking effect across China, 2026 could see a dip to 579 GW DC, before growth gradually resumes. Markets like India and Pakistan will also contribute to APAC’s growth in the near future. 

Here’s what’s lined up in today’s webinar: Marius Bakke from Rystad Energy kicks off with global solar trends. Then Sungrow’s Frank Du shares insights on Europe’s H2 outlook. Finally, China expert Frank Haugwitz wraps up before all three join TaiyangNews Managing Director Michael Schmela for a panel chat. 

Today’s webinar dives deep into how the global solar scene has shifted in H1 2025 — and what’s in store for the rest of the year. Expect insights on supply-demand dynamics, trade policy impacts, price trends, and ongoing challenges like supply chain pressures and overcapacity, and much more. Stay tuned to this space!