German Mechanical Engineering Federation (VDMA) has released the 15th edition of the International Technology Roadmap for Photovoltaics (ITRPV) wherein it claims global solar PV module shipments in 2023 totaled a record 502 GW. This comprised 412 GW installed and 90 GW not yet installed but in warehouses, at customers, or in transit.
The European Union (EU) imported about 100 GW of Chinese modules last year, whereas the actual installed capacity was close to 60 GW. This means some 40 GW is still with the EU.
With this, the report writers peg cumulative shipped module power at the end of 2023 at 1,769 GW, while the cumulative global installed PV capacity grew to exceed 1,610 GW.
A big contributor to the record shipments last year was the strong drop in average module prices of crystalline silicon modules. These dropped by almost 50% between 2022-end and 2023-end. The calculated average module spot price at the end of 2022 was $0.228/W, declining to $0.118/W by 2023-end.
According to the report's price experience curve, there was a 24.9% learning rate from 1976 to 2023. The price experience curve refers to the average PV module sales price as a function of cumulative shipments. The report writers attribute this to the impact of technological advancements as well as market conditions on prices. In the 14th edition of the report, it was reported as 24.4%.
In terms of technology, the crystalline silicon PV continued to dominate the market share last year with 97%. The remaining was held by thin-film.
Multicrystalline silicon wafers are out of the market having been replaced by Czochralski silicon (Cz-Si) wafers. According to the analysts, n-type wafers are forecast to exceed p-type materials as GW-scale manufacturers anticipate a 69% market share for n-type materials by 2024-end.
As for wafer sizes, the market is currently dominated by 182.0 mm² (M10) and larger sizes while M10R and G12R formats as rectangular variants have also been introduced. Larger sizes exceeding 210 mm² (G12) are also anticipated in the future, as per the report.
The rooftop solar segment will see larger modules exceeding 2 m² size increasing their market share as against the current popular trend of 1.8 m² to 2 m². For large-scale power plants, the trend will move from modules with an area of 2.5 m² to 3 m².
In terms of cell technologies, n-type TOPCon will overtake p-type PERC as the market leader in 2024, while other technologies such as silicon heterojunction (HJT), and back-contact cells gain traction.
Citing its survey results, the VDMA now sees mass-produced tandem silicon cells entering the market after 2027.
In 2024, bifacial solar cells will maintain around 90% market share and keep it stable over the next decade. However, bifacial solar modules will have a 63% market share, according to the analysts. This points to the high integration level of bifacial cells in monofacial module configurations.
The focus will continue to be on lowering material consumption including polysilicon through wafer thickness reduction and silver consumption reduction through fine line printing and copper-containing metallization. Ozone-based cleaning is expected to dominate in 2024.
As for manufacturing, the ITRPV report expects most new factories to have 5 GW or higher annual nameplate production capacities to benefit from economies of scale. Factories with under 1 GW capacity will serve niche applications and local markets.
The complete report is available on VDMA's website for free download.
ITRPV's Steering Committee Chair Markus Fischer was at the TaiyangNews Virtual Conference on Cell and Module Production Equipment and Processing Materials in May 2024 where he shared some findings of the ITRPV (see TaiyangNews Cell & Module Production Equipment & Processing Materials Conference).
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