BNEF has increased its annual solar PV installation forecast for 2024 to 592 GW
The upward revision is based on the continued drop in module prices that currently have reached $0.096/W
Several PV manufacturers are also likely to report losses and not survive this competition
Low prices of solar modules are likely to continue to boost global solar PV installations in 2024, according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF), which forecasts 592 GW of modules to be deployed this year.
It will be a 33% annual increase over 444 GW, said the research organization in its 3Q 2024 Global PV Market Outlook. The 592 GW forecast is a revision from the 574 GW BNEF announced in March 2024 (see BNEF Counts 444 GW DC New Solar PV Capacity Additions In 2023).
In the current scenario, module prices have dropped down to their lowest level ever, at $0.096/W, while polysilicon is below the production cost at $4.7/kg. Factories are also being shut down for maintenance, as also shared by leading Chinese polysilicon manufacturer Daqo New Energy in its recent Q2 2024 financial announcement (see Daqo Blames Low Polysilicon ASPs For Q2 2024 Negative EBITDA).
As solar PV manufacturers struggle in this intense competitive environment to maintain market share, low module prices will hurt most of them, according to the BNEF report. It forecasts 2024 polysilicon production at 1.96 million metric tons, enough to make 900 GW modules.
It expects most solar manufacturers to report losses this year as their convertible bonds show signs of weakness. Some will not survive this cycle, warns BNEF.
Lead Analyst for Solar at BNEF Jenny Chase explained that the global PV build forecast is up 1% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ), largely due to the developments in India and its neighbor Pakistan. On the other hand, installations are likely to slow down in the markets of Japan and South Africa. Most of the other established markets will grow steadily.
In May 2024, Rystad Energy pegged 2024 PV installations to add up to 462 GW DC (see Rystad Energy Forecasts 2024 Annual Solar PV Deployments).