Global solar installations in 2023 reached a record 444 GW DC, surpassing Bloomberg New Energy Finance's (BNEF) guidance of up to 415 GW DC for the year and recording 76% annual growth.
In 2024, it forecasts new module build to reach 574 GW DC with a 29% annual jump, saying it is mainly limited by local factors such as access to grid, land and labor.
In its 1Q 2024 Global PV Market Outlook, BNEF's Jenny Chase admits to the solar forecasts for 2023 to have been too conservative.
For China, BNEF's last guidance was for 240 GW DC, but the country belied all forecasts with a record 268 GW DC/216.9 GW AC, accounting for 60% of the global market (see China Installed Close To 217 GW New Solar PV In 2023).
In 2024, the scope is much higher, according to BNEF, as prices of solar modules are at record lows and the market is in a state of oversupply. Major suppliers of polysilicon can deliver enough volumes to produce 1.1 TW of solar modules this year.
There is enough module assembly capacity for tier I players to make 783 GW of modules/year, according to the report. Led by China, more markets are expected to grow with BNEF expecting 37 markets to install over 1 GW of solar modules in 2024.
However, low prices have forced some polysilicon manufacturers to halt production and others may follow suit. She says, "End-user markets are booming while manufacturers struggle to make a profit."
With intense cost pressure, Chase foresees many announced plans for factories in Europe, the US and other countries to be cancelled in 2024 unless the incentives are 'extremely generous.'
Recently, the China Photovoltaic Industry Association (CPIA) forecast up to 220 GW AC new PV additions in 2024 anticipating land and grid capacity challenges in the country with global installations ranging between 390 GW AC and 430 GW AC (see Industry Expects Chinese Solar Installation Spree To Slow Down).
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