Chinese solar PV module exports of over 35 GW during 2M 2026 declined 9% YoY, but solar cell exports rose sharply by 44%
Europe remained the most stable module market for Chinese manufacturers at around 14.16 GW
Asia led solar cell demand, while the Middle East grew strongly, and the Americas stayed weak
Chinese solar PV manufacturers shipped a combined 35.06 GW of modules in January and February 2026, down about 9% year-on-year (YoY) from 38.52 GW in the same period of 2025, according to InfoLink Consulting (see Chinese Solar Module Exports Declined 11% YoY In 2M 2025).
The decline points to shifting global demand patterns as local module production capacities continue to expand in several markets. Nearly 30% of the total module exports went to the top 5 countries: the Netherlands, the UAE, Pakistan, India, and Spain.
“Overall, the export performance in the first two months of 2026 no longer simply reflects changes in module demand, but more clearly shows a dual-track characteristic of differentiated module demand and increased pre-shipment of solar cells,” observes InfoLink.
Of the total module shipments during 2M 2026 (17.35 GW in January and 17.71 GW in February), the domestic Chinese market was the largest buyer, accounting for about 40% (14.16 GW).
Asia Pacific followed next, accounting for about 30% or 10.47 GW of the total. There was a slowdown in demand, as it was lower than 14.97 GW during 2M 2025, it says, even though there was a monthly increase of close to 26%. Pakistan accounted for 1.43 GW, down from 1.70 GW. India’s Chinese module imports fell to about 1.35 GW, but cell imports were higher at 3.62 GW.
Some of the markets in the Asia Pacific were using excess inventory from earlier, but InfoLink says restocking has started.
There was strong growth in demand (90%) in the Middle East as it secured 4.74 GW, ‘becoming the primary source of new growth’ during the period. The UAE was the largest importer at 1.71 GW, followed by Saudi Arabia at 1.01 GW. Demand is also picking up in Iraq.
This increase was mainly driven by large project activity, including the $5.9 billion financing deal in late 2025 for 15 GW of renewable projects in Saudi Arabia by ACWA Power and Badeel, with construction planned for 2026–2027 (see Middle East & Africa Solar PV News Snippets). In the UAE, new tenders and financed projects combining solar and battery storage also supported demand.
With close to 2.99 GW module exports – a decline of about 51% YoY – the Americas was the ‘weakest’ performing region among the 5 major regions. Brazil was the leading country (1.17 GW), followed by Mexico (380 MW) and the US (310 MW).
Increased demand from the off-grid segment pushed up demand for Chinese modules in Africa by close to 42%, totaling 2.70 GW, driven by South Africa (530 MW).
Europe’s module demand rose 8% YoY with approximately 14.16 GW shipped – 7.17 GW in January and 7.00 GW in February. While the Netherlands led demand with 33% or 4.69 GW of the total, Spain, Belgium, and France each took in more than 1.2 GW. This makes the region the ‘most stable and primary market’ for Chinese module exports.
According to InfoLink, much of it was due to stockpiling of modules, as the market anticipated possible new trade measures in the EU and the removal of Value Added Tax (VAT) export rebates (see China To Remove Solar Export Tax Rebates From April 1, 2026).
“With the official cancellation of export tax rebates for solar products on April 1st, market focus will gradually shift from "whether to ship ahead of schedule" to "whether costs can be smoothly passed on" and "whether overseas demand can absorb price changes,” says the analysts.
In contrast, Chinese solar cell exports rose sharply during the same period, with shipments increasing nearly 44% YoY to 18.16 GW. Of this total, around 10.08 GW was shipped in January and 8.08 GW in February.
Most of the demand came from manufacturing hubs in the Asia Pacific, especially Indonesia, India, and the Philippines. Asia accounted for about 90% of all solar cell imports, or 16.27 GW. Indonesia alone imported 7.71 GW, India 3.62 GW, the Philippines 2.50 GW, and Laos 1.36 GW.
Solar cell demand from India is likely to be elevated in the short term before the country implements its Approved List of Models and Manufacturers (ALMM) List-II from June 1, 2028. Once enforced, all government-backed solar projects will be required to use solar modules from ALMM List-I that use only domestically produced solar cells listed in ALMM List-II. As of April 13, 2026, about 30 GW of solar cell capacity had been included in ALMM List-II (see HJT Solar Cells, From Reliance, Enter India’s ALMM List-II).
Going forward, InfoLink expects a continued global mismatch between supply and demand. After April 2026, export momentum for cells and modules is likely to slow down as costs rise and buyers assess pricing and demand.
InfoLink observes, “The second quarter is likely to be a period of export adjustments and price renegotiation, while the second half of the year will see a gradual return to a more normalized pace of order intake. The export rhythm in 2026 may exhibit a phased pattern: a concentrated rush for orders in the first quarter, a return to stability in the second quarter, and a gradual recovery in the third and fourth quarters.”