InfoLink Consulting counts China to have exported 186.77 GW of solar modules during 9M 2024
This includes 54.9 GW in Q3, with the addition of 16.53 GW in the month of September 2024
It projects sluggish global demand for solar to persist in Q1 2025 as well
Between January and September 2024 this year, Chinese solar PV manufacturers together shipped 186.77 GW of solar modules, representing a year-on-year (YoY) increase of 18% compared to 157.65 GW exported during 9M 2023, according to InfoLink Consulting.
The volumes shipped this year are spread out as 67.6 GW in Q1, 64.2 GW in Q2, and 54.9 GW in Q3, which shows that their module shipments are steadily coming down quarter-on-quarter (QoQ). Even on a monthly basis, around 16.53 GW of modules shipped by the Chinese manufacturers in September 2024 represent 12% month-on-month (MoM) and 16% YoY decrease.
The most obvious decline was in the European and Asia Pacific markets.
China exported close to 6.8 GW of solar modules to Europe in September 2024, a 17% MoM and an 11% YoY drop. In aggregate terms, in Q3 2024 the shipments totaled 23.53 GW, and in 9M 2024, these added up to 85.33 GW.
InfoLink analysts explain this decline as due to excess solar power output in Europe during Q3 this year, affecting solar power supply and demand and impacting short-term profits of power generators. Additionally, Europe continues to fall short of policies to help generate demand for solar.
Next year should see some improvement in demand as Spain constructs some delayed centralized projects and emerging markets in Eastern Europe seek more modules.
The Asia Pacific market’s 3.86 GW volume in the reporting month was a 17% MoM and a 45% YoY drop, leading to 13.65 GW module exports from China in Q3 and 54.13 GW in 9M this year. India was the leading offtaker accounting for 1.1 GW. Analysts list port congestion and tight space supply here leading to a longer delivery cycle. At the same time, the government’s flagship rooftop solar scheme PM Surya Ghar: Muft Bijli Yojana favors local module makers.
Pakistan too imported 73% fewer modules MoM with around 290 MW in September mainly as the market entered the off-season, and the presence of huge inventory with local dealers.
The American market took close to 2.66 GW of Chinese solar modules compared to 2.55 GW in August and 2.74 GW in September 2023. Altogether the market took 7.56 GW of modules in Q3 and 24.31 GW during the initial 9 months this year. Brazil took the maximum volume of 1.66 GW. Going forward, the Brazilian solar market stands to gain from the administration warning of higher costs for traditional electricity generation.
To the Middle East, Chinese solar module exports totaled 2.43 GW, a 2% MoM and a 31% YoY decline in the month of September. For Q3, it amounted to 7.43 GW and during 9M, a combined 22.89 GW. Saudi Arabia led the charge here taking in 1.45 GW Chinese modules in the month of September. As the country targets to tender 20 GW of renewable energy projects every year, Chinese exports to this destination should rise.
The Africa market dropped by 9% MoM and 36% YoY to 790 MW in September. It led to a combined 2.74 GW during Q3 and 7.74 GW between January and September this year, led by South Africa. The South African government’s 10% tariff imposition on imported solar modules at the end of June 2024, dampened the demand and so did the local grid connection congestion problems.
“Overall, we still maintain our previous view on the purchase situation for this year, and it is expected that it will be difficult to see substantial growth. It is not even ruled out that the sluggish situation in the solar energy market may continue into the first quarter of next year, and the overall market demand tends to be pessimistic,” state InfoLink analysts.
For 2024, InfoLink expects global solar PV market demand to grow up to 533 GW, and for the following year, its projection is up to 568 GW (see 2024 Global Solar PV Market Demand Projected To Reach Up To 533 GW).