US DG solar module prices rose 3.7% to $0.28/W from June to August 2025, driven by pre-deadline purchases for safe harbor
FEOC-noncompliant modules saw a sharper 9.2% price rise, reflecting limited compliant supply and early buyer planning
Mono PERC modules led demand with a 10% price rise, while TOPCon and HJT saw smaller gains
Solar cell prices increased across most regions, with Southeast Asian and Indian supplies under tariff scrutiny
US distributed generation (DG) solar module prices rose 3.7% between June and August 2025, reaching $0.28/watt, according to Anza Renewables. Analysts say the increase was driven by a surge in purchases ahead of the September 2 deadline for projects over 1.5 MW seeking to qualify for the Investment Tax Credit (ITC) under the 5% safe harbor rule.
They explain, “This upward trajectory is consistent with pull-forward buying ahead of deadlines, as developers likely sought to lock in prices and protect against current and expected tariff and duty increases; interest in trade-compliant BOMs may also have contributed.”
The uptick in prices was also seen for Foreign Entity of Concern (FEOC)-non-compliant modules, as the increase over the same period was much higher at 9.2%. On the other hand, FEOC-compliant module prices increased by 4.5%. Anza says this reflects buyer reliance on established suppliers and early FEOC planning, as there remains a limited supply of compliant modules as of now, according to its report that covers median DG price lists from over 40 module suppliers.
Analysts observe that safe harbor activity was mainly driven by upcoming deadlines rather than FEOC rules. Developers with projects starting in 2026 or later – when FEOC-compliant equipment will be required for tax credits – are now focusing on securing non-FEOC equipment before those rules take effect.
In terms of modules, mono PERC is the technology of choice for the US market due to IP concerns around TOPCon, making it the lowest-priced mainstream option. This led to around a 10% increase in prices for mono PERC from June to August, rising by $0.02/W to $0.275/W.
TOPCon module prices saw a modest improvement of 3.7% to $0.28/W, while heterojunction (HJT) prices increased by 2.6% to $0.39/W.
Solar cell supply
Solar cell prices rose across most regions. Cells from Southeast Asia affected by AD/CVD measures, including Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia, and Laos, saw an increase of $0.01/W to $0.305/W, with Indonesia, Laos, and India under investigation for possible tariffs (see US Investigates Solar Trade From Laos, Indonesia & India).
The Philippines, the only Southeast Asian nation not classified under AD/CVD, saw prices rise 4.1% to $0.28/W as the country’s manufacturing capacity grows. Prices from the Middle East and Africa (MENA) increased 3.9% to $0.265/W even as it accounts for a small volume being imported to the US, while supplies from South Korea and Germany saw an 8.8% drop to $0.31/W. In comparison, US domestic cell content was the highest at $0.46/W.
In the future, Anza sees solar module prices depend on supplier strategies, trade decisions, and how companies prepare for FEOC compliance.
Nevertheless, there are risks ahead – possible new tariffs on solar products from India, Indonesia, and Laos, along with a potential US tariff on polysilicon and its derivatives under Section 232 investigation (see Wood Mackenzie Calls Section 232 US Solar’s Biggest Challenge).
These factors could push module costs higher in Q4, cautions Anza, especially if the polysilicon tariff applies widely instead of to just a few countries.
Despite the various challenges facing the US solar market, the industry remains confident of its resilience along the value chain, as was clear at the TaiyangNews Solar – Made in the USA 2025 conference at RE+ 2025. Industry leaders assembled at the conference called for policy stability, technology adoption, and secure domestic supply chains (see US Solar PV Manufacturing Confronts Supply Chain And Policy Risks).