DNV projects 860 GW of new solar PV capacity in MENA between now and 2040, a 12-fold increase, as solar remains the cheapest and fastest power source to deploy
Solar capacity is expected to grow from 76 GW in 2024 to 343 GW by 2029, lifting its share in the electricity mix from 4% to 19%
Co-located large-scale solar and storage projects are growing here, mirroring global trends
DNV projects the region to further add 2.2 TW of additional solar and wind generation capacity between 2040 and 2060, on the back of growing demand for electricity
A new DNV report sees the Middle East & North Africa (MENA) region adding 860 GW of new solar PV capacity between now and 2040, thanks to this generation source being the ‘cheapest and quickest’ to install. This represents a 12-fold growth in solar capacity and includes new solar PV projects co-located with storage.
Solar will be the focus as MENA is likely to have 92% of its electricity generation come from non-fossil fuels by 2060, up from 14% in 2024, says DNV in its new report Rise of Renewables in the Gulf Region.
With 86% of its electricity generated by fossil fuels in 2024, MENA’s energy transition has been relatively slow compared to Europe and even the global average. It is starting to gain ground now as renewables become cheaper due to technology learnings achieved elsewhere. Between 2024 and 2027, its renewable energy capacity is expected to double to 310 GW.
In 2024, the region sported 76 GW of solar capacity, comprising 61 GW of utility and 15 GW of distributed, accounting for 4% of the region’s total electricity. By 2026, DNV sees it expanding to 154 GW by 2026 and doubling to 343 GW by 2029, raising its share in the power mix to 19%.
DNV says 80% of the projects due to be completed at the end of the decade are larger than 1 GW, which reflects falling module costs due to overcapacity and growing interest in renewables. Modules now account for 14% of solar CapEx, while 81% comes from balance of system (BOS) costs, among others.
Co-location of solar with storage for several projects here mirrors the global trend. By 2044, MENA is expected to expand its solar capacity co-located with storage from 16% in 2024 to 50%, according to the report writers (see Middle East & Africa Solar PV News Snippets).
Yet, this growth will not be sufficient to displace gas-fired power in the region until 2040, as electricity demand will grow substantially, mainly from buildings and desalination. Between 2040 and 2060, demand will be driven mainly by the switch to electric vehicles, AI data centers, and green hydrogen production. Electrification of manufacturing will also contribute to the rise since export markets will require reduced carbon footprint on products, analysts note.
DNV claims that the region will further add 2.2 TW of additional solar and wind generation capacity between 2040 and 2060 on the back of growing demand for electricity.
“Only from 2040 onwards will renewable generation increase faster than new electricity demand, marking the tipping point of fossil-fired displacement,” reads the report.
A positive factor for renewables is the availability of a relatively new and robust grid in the Gulf region, which should not lead to grid constraints. It could become a challenge from 2035 onwards if grid expansions and upgrades don’t take place on time to match the anticipated renewables growth, caution the analysts.
The complete report is available for free download on DNV’s website.
Earlier, the International Energy Agency forecast MENA’s solar capacity to grow explosively from 18 GW in 2023 to 220 GW by 2035 under current policies, potentially growing to 450 GW under accelerated adoption (see IEA Sees MENA Region’s Solar Growth Rising To 220 GW By 2035).
DNV's Senior Engineer, Solar Technology, Parth Bhatt will be at the TaiyangNews Solar Technology Conference India 2026 (STC.I 2026), to be held on February 5 and 6 in Aerocity, New Delhi. Bhatt will be part of the Quality and Sustainability Workshop that will share strategies for maintaining consistent quality at scale while integrating new technologies. This 2nd edition of the TaiyangNews physical conference will also have banks, investors, and policymakers in attendance. Register for the event here.