India’s solar PV manufacturing capacity is set to surge, with EUPD Research projecting modules reaching 280 GW and cells 171 GW by 2030
It has strong export potential as the country becomes a major integrated PV base, with possible module exports of 143 GW by 2030
Narrowing price gaps with China shows cost progress, but India must still reduce higher sustainable price levels
Its long-term success hinges on global diversification, stronger ESG compliance, and early alignment with Europe’s regulatory and carbon standards
Spurred on by government support, India’s solar PV manufacturing industry must now focus on becoming more competitive, technology-driven, and sustainability-focused to sustain this growth momentum, according to EUPD Research.
Analysts project that the country’s solar module manufacturing capacity will exceed 280 GW by 2030, while cell capacity will expand from 26 GW in 2025 to roughly 171 GW by the end of this decade. However, it is expected to install only about 213 GW DC capacity, averaging 42 GW DC annually, between 2025 and 2029.
At this scale, India is emerging as one of the largest integrated PV manufacturing bases globally with substantial export opportunities. According to EUPD analysis India’s Solar Surge: The Next Looming PV Price Shock?, India’s module exports could reach about 143 GW by 2030, with a capacity utilization factor (CUF) of 65%.
Earlier this month, a Wood Mackenzie report sounded an alarm over potential overcapacity in India’s solar manufacturing sector as production outpaces demand in the domestic market, while recommending market diversification (see India’s Solar Module Capacity To Exceed 125 GW By 2025).
“India’s solar manufacturing surge has delivered scale, and the focus should now be on global competitiveness,” said Founder and CEO of EUPD Group, Markus A. W. Hoehner. “Identifying the most resilient markets and their stakeholders, and meeting emerging sustainability and quality requirements will be essential for long-term success.”
Even as the US market, India’s largest solar export destination, is now almost out of bounds with tighter trade measures, manufacturers will now need to ‘deepen engagement’ with the Europe, the Middle East, and Africa (EMEA) region to diversify their market exposure, stated EUPD analysts.
India not only has scale to offer, but it is also delivering on cost, point out the analysts. The spot price gap between Indian and Chinese TOPCon modules has narrowed from $0.09/W to $0.057/W between early 2024 and October 2025, thanks to advances in automation, larger factories, and more efficient production.
Continued technological and operational progress is now required since the minimum sustainable prices in India are still 14% to 17% higher than in China and Southeast Asia.
Advantage India
Nevertheless, India still has some built-in advantages. Shipping modules from India to Europe costs less – about 5% of the module price, versus 8.7% from China. Due to the route being shorter, shipping emissions are roughly 65% lower. EUPD analysts say this helps Indian manufacturers meet Europe’s industrial and carbon rules more easily. They could benefit further from the proposed EU-India Free Trade Agreement, which could make testing and certification easier for both sides and lead to deeper technological cooperation.
India’s growing manufacturing sector now fits well with countries looking for more diverse and transparent supply chains – but it must stay competitive as global oversupply and price pressures continue, added EUPD Research’s Senior Consultant, Rajan Kalsotra.
EUPD analysts believe that long-term success for Indian solar makers will depend on better technology, stronger ESG performance, and early alignment with Europe’s regulatory and emissions rules. Companies that target the right markets, differentiate their products, and use robust data will be better placed to sustain margins.
“As competition intensifies, speed, focus and disciplined execution outweigh scale alone. Indian manufacturers must move beyond production volume toward data-driven market understanding, tiering markets, segmenting customers and aligning technology with profitable demand,” it adds.
In another commentary on the Indian solar PV manufacturing sector, credit rating agency ICRA also flagged overcapacity concerns, leading to consolidation among smaller manufacturers (see ICRA Flags Overcapacity Risk In India’s Solar Sector Up Ahead).
At the recently concluded Renewable Energy India Expo (REI) 2025, TaiyangNews spoke to the industry players and one striking factor was the lack of skilled talent to take the industry forward. Read the report here (see From Modules to Materials: India’s Solar Industry In Expansion Mode).