The solar power capacity of the US will likely increase to 182.31 GW by 2026
The US EIA expects solar-powered generation to go up 35% in 2025 and 18% in 2026
Solar will likely reach 8% in electricity generation capacity by 2026, while coal’s share declines steadily
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts the country’s total installed solar power capacity to expand to over 182 GW by the end of 2026 in its Short-Term Energy Outlook report. The country exited 2024 with 121.85 GW of solar capacity.
On March 11, 2025, it forecast 181.84 GW of cumulative capacity by the end of 2026, which the agency has now raised to 182.31 GW, expanding it by 0.3%. In between, it is forecast to grow to 152.5 GW in 2025.
“In particular, we expect U.S. solar-powered generation by the electric power sector to increase by 35% in 2025 and by 18% in 2026,” reads the EIA report.
By 2026, solar will likely account for 8% of the country’s total electricity generation capacity, even as the share of natural gas will not change year-on-year (YoY) from 40% in the previous year.
Wind power capacity, on the other hand, will grow from 152.58 GW at the end of 2024 to 172.72 GW at the end of the forecast year.
Coal’s share will steadily come down from 16% in 2025 to 15% in 2026, according to the US government agency, even as the current US administration promotes ‘beautiful clean coal resources’ by addressing impediments to its mining and lifting barriers.
Nevertheless, according to the US Solar Market Insight report of the SEIA and Wood Mackenzie, the country’s cumulative installed solar PV capacity reached 235.7 GW at the end of 2024, a 21% YoY growth. This comprises residential, utility, commercial and community solar segments (see US Market Grew By Record 50 GW New Solar Capacity In 2024).
Corrigendum: The previous version of the article mentioned capacity projections comprising larger than 1 MW systems, which is not the case. It has been rectified.