US solar market expanded by 21% YoY to a record 50 GW DC capacity in 2024
It was led by the utility-scale segment, which alone brought 41.4 GW DC capacity online
The residential solar segment continues to feel the impact of high interest rates
Domestic solar module manufacturing capacity continues to expand
The US installed a record-breaking 50 GW DC of new solar PV capacity, making it a historic year for the country’s solar PV industry in 2024, according to the latest US Solar Market Insight 2024 Year In Review report. It expands the country’s cumulative installed PV capacity to 235.7 GW.
According to the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA) and Wood Mackenzie report, annual solar installations in 2024 represent a 21% growth over 2023. Solar PV also led the largest electricity generation capacity addition to the grid over any other technology, garnering a 66% share. Together with storage, solar accounted for 84% of all new electric generating capacity going online last year.
The utility-scale segment was firmly in the driver’s seat with record new additions of 41.4 GW DC, including more than 16 GW DC installed in Q4 2024, thanks to high module inventory levels. More than a quarter of the 33% year-on-year (YoY) growth was reported from Texas.
The commercial solar segment improved 8% YoY with strong deployments in California, Illinois, New York and Maine, representing a combined 2.12 GW DC. The community solar segment also reported its largest-ever year of growth with a 35% annual increase to 1.74 GW DC.
Residential solar was the only segment that experienced its lowest year of new capacity since 2021, contracting 31% YoY with 4.7 GW DC of installed capacity. The decline in the California market and the impact of sustained high interest rates contributed to its decline, according to the report writers.
Presenting its 10-year outlook for every market segment, the report expects US solar capacity to more than triple from 236 GW DC at the end of 2024 to 739 GW DC by 2035-end. This means an average annual capacity addition of more than 45 GW DC.
Nevertheless, they add a high and low scenario to their forecast to factor in the impact of policy and economic issues. In the high scenario, they assume tax credits and adders in the IRA to remain unchanged, and any guidance released in the future will be favorable for developers. Additionally, interest rates are expected to decline at a faster pace than in the base case, reaching between 2.75% and 3.00% by the end of 2027.
The high scenario leads to a 24% increase in total installations through 2034 relative to the base case, leading to an additional 118 GW DC capacity.
On the other hand, the low case scenario presents a more challenging environment anticipating an early phase-out of the ITC, among other factors. It also assumes a limited supply of solar products due to a modest domestic manufacturing build-out. In this scenario, the total solar installations will likely decrease by 127 GW DC or 25% through 2035 compared to the base case.
“Last year’s record-level of installations was aided by several solar policies and credits within the Inflation Reduction Act that helped drive interest in the solar market,” said Principal Analyst, North America Utility-Scale Solar for Wood Mackenzie, Sylvia Levya Martinez. “We still have many challenges ahead, including unprecedented load growth on the power grid. If many of these policies were eliminated or significantly altered, it would be very detrimental to the industry’s continued growth.”
Speaking of manufacturing, the US solar module manufacturing capacity grew by 190% YoY from 14.5 GW at the end of 2023 to 42.1 GW at the end of 2024. This has expanded to over 50 GW in early 2025 (see US Solar Module Manufacturing Capacity Exceeds 50 GW Milestone).
The country can now produce enough solar modules to meet nearly all domestic demand for solar panels. Solar cell manufacturing efforts have started to pick up pace as Suniva’s 1 GW and ES Foundry’s 2 GW cell factories started operations even though some manufacturers who planned to begin cell production before the end of 2024 delayed, paused or canceled their plans.
No wafer manufacturing projects came online last year, and several have either canceled or downsized their planned factories. However, the US government’s inclusion of solar wafer manufacturing in the 48D CHIPS Act should boost this segment (see US Announces Tax Credits For Ingots & Wafers Under CHIPS & Science Act).
An executive summary of the report is available for free download on the SEIA website.
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