- ABSOLAR says Brazil’s aggregate solar PV capacity has increased to 39 GW
- With module prices going down, it forecasts the country to install 9.3 GW of new capacity in 2024
- Greener counts the country to have imported 17.5 GW modules in 2023, with over 5 GW in Q4
Brazilian solar energy association ABSOLAR says Brazil has achieved an aggregate solar PV capacity of 39 GW as on February 20, 2024, with the addition of 1 GW in less than 20 days. Large-scale solar plants make up more than 12 GW of this total.
This is an increase of 4 GW over the 35 GW aggregate the association had announced on November 13, 2023, comprising 24.4 GW distributed and 10.6 GW large-scale projects (see Brazil’s Operational Solar PV Capacity Exceeds 35 GW).
ABSOLAR President Ronaldo Koloszuk told the local Brazilian daily newspaper Folha de S.Paulo that this is best time for solar energy investment as average solar panel prices have dropped by over 50% compared to a year ago.
Riding on this wave, he expects the country to add 9.3 GW of new installed capacity in 2024. Brazil’s National Electric Energy Agency (ANEEL) recently announced the country to have added 621.56 MW new power generation capacity, comprising 198.12 MW from PV plants. In 2024, the government agency forecasts Brazil to increase its electricity mix by 10.1 GW.
However, the Brazilian solar industry still heavily depends on imports, unlike wind energy for which 80% of the turbines are manufactured locally. Brazil is forecast to end 2024 with an installed capacity of 32.8 GW in wind energy, reaching 55.4 GW by 2029.
Brazil imported 17.5 GW of solar modules in 2023, representing a slight reduction of 1.7% over previous year, according to Brazilian consultancy Greener. It is the distributed generation (DG) market that remains the largest procurer of this capacity in the country taking 11.4 GW of total module imports last year thanks to high demand. Yet, it was still 2 GW less than in 2022.
Greener says over 5 GW of this module volume came in during Q4/2023 as the highest quarterly volume, with 74% of this directed to the DG segment.
It imported close to 4 GW of panels from China in November and December last year. Analysts believe some of this equipment is yet to arrive and is expected to contribute to PV additions in Q1/2024.
Difficulties in accessing credit and high interest rates were the primary reasons for the 60% drop in retail sales of small residential and commercial installations in H1/2023. Despite this, the DG market has increased more than 8 GW in total network capacity that now exceeds 26 GW in distributed solar PV installed power, Greener adds.
For large-scale solar power plants, Greener analysts expect 7 GW capacity as being under construction at the end of 2023 that should be operational in 2024 and 2025.
ANEEL recently pegged large-scale solar PV capacity to have grown by 4.071 GW in 2023 (see Brazil Grid Connected Over 4 GW New Solar In 2023).
