BloombergNEF’s 2023 Solar Installation Forecast

• BloombergNEF expects the global solar installations in 2023 to grow by 56% annually  
• China will lead the numbers, while newer markets will pitch in with large capacity additions  
• Falling module prices are a major reason that are likely to drop further down from $0.165/W in August 2023   

Falling prices of solar modules and rapid build of PV projects in China and elsewhere are expected to drive solar installations in 2023 to a 'record high' volume of nearly 400 GW, according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BloombergNEF).   

Analysts peg the exact number for this year's installations at 392 GW, with a 56% YoY growth. China will lead the numbers alone as it continues to install huge volumes. The local plans and targets for build in the country 'serve as a lower bound rather than an upper one' on what may actually happen.   

It won't be China or the other leading markets that alone will drive this growth. For example, a new market like South Africa, which desperately needs new clean generation capacity, is expected to add 5 GW alone.   

BloombergNEF's Jenny Chase believes that by the end of 2023 the typical monocrystalline silicon monofacial module prices will drop down to $0.145/W after hitting an 'all-time low' of $0.165/W in August 2023.  

Polysilicon prices have stabilized as of now, but as new capacity comes online, Chase cautions the market of an oversupply in H2/2023. "Margins across the PV value chain are under pressure, as competition is intense among Chinese manufacturers and module inventory is high in Europe and other large markets," writes Chase.    

In comparison with BloombergNEF, Wood Mackenzie's nearly 270 GW DC installation forecast for 2023 is quite conservative (see Wood Mackenzie's Global Solar Forecast For 2023).