A lack of clarity about concessional Basic Customs Duty (BCD) for projects auctioned before 2021 and developers shelving their projects to 2023 anticipating drop in module prices led to a 13% sequential decline in Indian solar installations in Q3/2022, according to Bridge to India (BTI).
The Indian energy market intelligence firm counts 3.338 GW deployed in Q3/2022, comprising 2.602 GW utility scale, 485 MW rooftop and 251 MW off-grid solar. On cumulative basis, the 3 segments at the end of September 2022 grew to 51.77 GW, 10.40 GW and 2.06 GW, respectively.
The aggregate installed solar power capacity of India reached 64.239 GW. There is another 53.405 GW in the pipeline, at various stages of development, the consultancy states in its India Solar Compass Q3 2022 report that can be purchased on its website.
Tender issuance is on the rise with 42 new tenders representing 10.957 GW launched in the reporting period, 15% up sequentially. Around 44% of this capacity was tendered by the Solar Energy Corporation of India (SECI) and Indian Railways alone.
However, auction activity wasn’t that active as only 2.5 GW was auctioned, declining 25% from Q2/2022. The analysts point that winning tariffs have been on the rise ranging between INR 2.59 per kWh for GUVNL’s 500 MW tranche-VI tender to INR 3.30 per kWh for RUMS solar-wind hybrid 750 MW tender.
As for module exports, these were at an all-time high even as imports ‘picked up marginally’. “Prices of both international and domestic modules softened slightly and are expected to continue easing gradually through all of 2023,” according to BTI.
Going forward, the analysts expect about 3.2 GW new capacity installation in Q4/2022, and another 3.0 GW in Q1/2023.
BTI’s Q3/2022 installation figures are higher than Mercom India Research’s 2.7 GW estimate which the latter said comprised 88% large-scale and 12% rooftop segments (see India Installed 10 GW+ New Solar PV Capacity In 9M/2022).