Kazakhstan’s RE Target Achievement Dicey

• Kazakhstan is likely to miss meeting its 2030 renewable energy target, according to GlobalData
• Lack of flexible generation in the country and its high dependence on outdated power generation infrastructure are reasons cited
• Between 2023-2025, it is expected to add 3.1 GW solar and 2.9 GW onshore wind which is much lower than its renewables potential

Kazakhstan with its 'Soviet-era technology in the generation and transmission sectors' and whose generation capacity runs on 'parallel operation with the Russian power system' is likely to achieve only 10.3% renewable energy share in its total electricity generation by 2030 as against 15% target, says GlobalData.

The country has already achieved its 3% renewable electricity target in 2020, however the 2030 targets seems to be out of reach to GlobalData analysts as they cite lack of flexible generation as a reason for this forecast.

"The current geopolitical crisis creates a major risk for the country to cover imbalances and maintain frequency stability. The shortage of flexible capacity is likely to become an increasing challenge as more intermittent renewable power is added to the capacity mix," explained GlobalData Power Analyst Ojindaram Saibasan.

Kazakhstan is likely to add 3.1 GW new solar PV capacity between 2023 and 2025, and 2.9 GW onshore wind capacity, yet there is a 'huge untapped potential' for renewables in the country that's been overlooked due to cheap availability of thermal power as it boasts of coal reserves, according the analysts.

Thermal power continues to form the largest share of the country's power generation capacity as it accounted for 80.1% of total installed capacity and 86.6% of annual generation in 2022. Coal power alone accounts for 59.5% and 64.5%, respectively.

GlobalData in its report Kazakhstan Power Market Size, Trends, Regulations, Competitive Landscape and Forecast, 2023-2025, recommends the country to exploit the untapped wind and solar PV potential in the country though auctions, incentives and advanced technology (see Update On Multi-GW Kazakh Renewable Hydrogen Project).

"Kazakhstan should look to upgrade its national grid to make it more sustainable, independent, and adaptable to intermittent renewable production," added Saibasan.

The Kazakhstan Power Market Size, Trends, Regulations, Competitive Landscape and Forecast, 2023-2025 report can be purchased from GlobalData's website with prices starting from $2,500.