Sunrun Exited Q2 2024 With 192 MW Solar Energy Capacity Installed

With 152% Year-over-Year (YoY) increase in storage installation and attachment rates, representing 265 MWh of storage, US residential solar and storage installer and financier Sunrun beat the high-end of its installation guidance for Q2 2024. Declining prices of solar and storage equipment costs are a fundamental driver for this growth, according to the management.  

The company believes its storage-first strategy is paying off as it has now installed a combined 116,000 solar and systems with 1.8 GWh networked storage capacity. Storage attachment rates reached 54% of installations nationally during the reporting quarter.  

Sunrun’s new solar energy installations met guidance of 190 MW to 200 MW with an eventual 192 MW. At the end of June 2024, Sunrun had 984,000 customers and close to 828,999 subscribers representing 7.1 GW of networked solar energy capacity, an annual increase of 14%.  

Its new customer additions of approximately 26,700 comprised around 25,000 subscriber additions. The company generated $217 million cash during the quarter.   

Sunrun’s total revenues in Q2 totaled $524 million, having increased from $458 million in the last quarter and gone down from $590 million in the previous year (see Sunrun Q1/2024 Financial Results A Little Bleak). This comprises customer agreements and incentive revenue.  

Guidance  

The management has guided for its storage installations in Q3 2024 to range within 275 MWh to 300 MWh, registering close to 64% annual growth at the midpoint. For full year 2024, it expects to report 1,030 MWh to 1,100 MWh, representing 86% growth at the midpoint. This is an improvement over its previous guidance of 800 MWh to 1,000 MWh. 

Solar energy capacity installed is expected to fall within 220 MW to 230 MW in the next quarter, a 17% growth from Q2. For 2024, it expects solar energy capacity installations to decline by close to 15%. However, CFO Danny Abajian said this still represents market share gains underpinned by its subscription offering and go-to-market approach. He expects YoY growth to be positive starting in Q4 2024.  

For Q4 2024, it expects cash generation of between $50 million and $125 million, and guides for $350 million to $600 million in 2025. The latter reflects around 45% average ITC. It expects a large portion of its solar-only systems, in addition to storage systems, to qualify for the domestic content adder later this year and into 2025.   

Commenting on the company’s guidance, Philip Shen of Roth MKM opined, “While the 2024 solar installation guide was lowered to the low end, we expect the market to shake that off given the strong storage deployments and cash generation outlook. Look for yly growth to resume by Q4'24 and through 2025 especially as rates start to come.”