Australia Eyes Bridging 240,000 Ton Poly-Si Gap By 2035

A new study backed by the Australian government said growing global demand for non-Chinese polysilicon could create an opportunity for Australia to expand its role in the solar supply chain. The report stated that a 50,000-ton polysilicon facility at the Hunter Energy Hub in Australia could support production equivalent to 27 GW of solar modules annually, exceeding domestic demand and enabling export growth.  

Supported by the Australian Renewable Energy Agency (ARENA), the Australian Silicon Study (AusSi study) estimates that the proposed 50,000-ton-per-year production fab could enable around 940 TWh of solar generation over a 25-year module lifetime.  

According to the study, this will improve the country’s supply chain resilience for critical minerals, while positioning Australia as an exporter with ‘validated demand across 6 countries’, including its own. 

Australian Polysilicon Factory could Address Supply Gap 

Currently, approximately 95% of global polysilicon production is concentrated in China, while demand for non-Chinese supply is increasing as countries such as the US, EU member states, and India expand local solar manufacturing. 

According to the report, China’s total polysilicon production capacity reached about 3.5 million tons by 2025, compared to a demand of around 1.2 million tons. Outside China, total polysilicon capacity was about 199,000 tons, of which only around 69,000 tons were solar-grade polysilicon. China’s solar-grade polysilicon capacity was 1.15 million tons. 

Most non-Chinese solar-grade polysilicon supply came from Malaysia, the US, and Germany, but it cost more than the Chinese supply. Announced projects outside China may not meet future demand, creating an estimated supply gap of about 240,000 tons by 2035 and more than 350,000 tons by 2040. 

“An Australian poly-Si facility commencing production by early 2030’s would be well positioned to fill the emerging supply gap, however, the planning, engineering, and funding processes must commence immediately to ensure the facility is operational in time,” propose the report authors.  

Enabling Conditions for a 50,000-ton Poly-Si Plant in Australia 

A 50,000-ton poly-Si factory in Australia will require around AUD 2.5-3.5 billion in total capital expenditure to deliver close to AUD 1.1 billion in annual economic value. At least 90% of production from the proposed facility would likely be export-oriented from day 1. 

The Hunter Energy Hub has existing infrastructure that can be repurposed for future energy projects, highlights the study. It benefits from a strong grid connection, water supply systems, a renewable energy pipeline, a skilled workforce, and transport links. The site also has established relationships with local communities, governments, and First Nations groups. 

Under the base case scenario, establishing a 50,000-ton poly-Si fab in Australia would require government support, including upfront grants of AUD 1.0-1.5 billion and production credits of about AUD 200 million annually for 10 years.  

Assessing such a scenario across 5 comparable sectors, the report says paybacks for the factory will be longer than High Purity Alumina (HPA)/graphite – 5 to 7 years – owing to poly-Si being capital-intensive. Yet the payback period will be shorter relative to lithium due to the price premium associated with non-Chinese poly-Si. 

A proposed 50,000-ton polysilicon plant at the Hunter Energy Hub would rely heavily on a stable electricity supply, magnesium silicon (MG-Si) sourcing, and skilled labor. Electricity is expected to account for the largest share of operating costs, with the plant requiring 300–350 MW of continuous power and 2.5–3.0 TWh annually. The report recommends adding a potential on-site energy storage with a 4-hour capacity to mitigate intra-day price volatility.

Leveraging Domestic & International Opportunities 

Global protectionist policies are creating opportunities for alternative polysilicon supply chains outside China, and Australia is well-positioned to capitalize on them. The US, India, the EU, and Japan are introducing tariffs, subsidies, procurement rules, and sustainability measures to support domestic solar manufacturing and reduce dependence on imported polysilicon. 

At present, certified, traceable Chinese poly-Si aligned with international procurement standards commands a price of $10-14/kg. The commercial viability of a poly-Si plant in Australia will depend on the price premium its product can command. 

“Based on discussions with potential downstream offtakers worldwide, the AusSi Study has concluded that potential pricing between Chinese traceable poly-Si and EU/US premium pricing is the appropriate pricing strategy for poly-Si produced in Australia,” state the authors.  

Additionally, the country could leverage its existing metallurgical silicon capacity, experience in large-scale processing industries, and reputation as a commodity exporter. 

The study said this support could help establish Australia’s first poly-Si plant as a new energy export industry. Additional plants could follow, leveraging the learnings from the first plant for Australia to operate a fully economically viable poly-Si industry.  

It is likely to create 900 high-skilled, full-time jobs, transitioning workers from closing coal-fired power stations into clean energy manufacturing. 

The proposed project aligns with the Australian government’s ‘Future Made in Australia’ strategy and the Solar Sunshot program, which aim to expand domestic clean energy manufacturing and reduce reliance on concentrated global supply chains.  

Earlier in 2025, ARENA had allocated AUD 11 million to 3 projects to conduct feasibility studies into polysilicon and a pulling and wafering facility, including a 50,000-ton or 10-40 GW of solar-grade polysilicon facility at Hunter Energy Hub under the Solar Sunshot program (see Australia Injects AUD 45.5 Million Into Solar Manufacturing Expansion).  

Quinbrook Infrastructure Partners is also exploring the establishment of a polysilicon production facility in Queensland in collaboration with Solquartz. The duo had also received conditional approval for a parcel of land in 2023 (see Polysilicon Manufacturing Planned In Australia).