Global solar PV installations are forecast to decline for the first time in 2026 to 584 GW, forecasts BloombergNEF
China is expected to play a major role in the market slowdown this year, before the pace accelerates next year onward
It expects battery storage growth over the next five years, but sees challenges in integrating variable renewable generation
Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BloombergNEF) forecasts global solar PV installations to reach 584 GW DC in 2026, marking the first annual decline in PV deployment. Installations are expected to recover to 618 GW DC in 2027.
The 2026 forecast represents a 10.8% year-on-year (YoY) decline from the 655 GW DC BloombergNEF estimated for 2025 (see Solar To Become World’s Largest Power Source By 2032).
At a China Photovoltaic Industry Association seminar in the first quarter of 2025, analyst Youru Tan presented a forecast of 753 GW DC for 2026. Later, in December 2025, BloombergNEF lowered the projection to 649 GW DC of solar installations (see BloombergNEF Raises 2025 Solar Installation Forecast To Around 700 GW DC).
China, the world’s largest solar market, is expected to drive the decline in global installations. BloombergNEF previously projected 310 GW DC of additions in China in 2026. This compares with a record 315 GW AC of solar capacity installed in 2025, according to the country’s National Energy Administration. The figures are measured on different bases (see China Sets New Annual Solar PV Installation Record In 2025).
SolarPower Europe’s Global Solar Market Outlook 2026–2030 estimated that global solar PV installations reached a record 664 GW in 2025. Under its Medium Scenario, installations are forecast to decline by 8% to 612 GW in 2026, primarily due to an expected 24% drop in China following changes to the country’s solar market policies (see Global Solar PV Installs Hit 664 GW In 2025; 8% Drop Ahead).
In a Substack thread, BloombergNEF clean power analyst Jenny Chase described 2026 as ‘the end of the beginning of the age of cheap solar’, noting that it is likely to be the first year of declining PV deployment. She said module prices in normal markets remain at around $0.11–$0.12/W, only slightly above the record low of $0.09/W in 2025, before China canceled its export tax rebate (see China To Remove Solar Export Tax Rebates From April 1, 2026).
Chase attributed the slowdown partly to solar saturation in major markets, where abundant generation during sunny hours depresses electricity prices. Adding more solar capacity can exacerbate this effect because generation peaks at the same time. In markets with more room to grow, grid access and permitting remain key constraints, according to Chase.
She expects battery storage deployment to accelerate over the next five years, which should help integrate solar generation and shift electricity supply to periods of higher demand. However, storage alone cannot address all the challenges posed by variable renewable generation, making complementary sources such as wind and longer-duration storage important.
