China's 15th Five-Year Plan Targets Over 50% Wind & Solar Share

China's new energy system plan for the 2026-2030 period under the country’s 15th Five-Year Plan (FYP) reinforces the country's clean energy expansion, but sets targets that analysts say reflect ‘low ambition’ for renewable energy. 

Released by the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and National Energy Administration (NEA) recently, the 15th Five-Year Plan for New-Type Energy System Construction (2026-2030) targets non-fossil fuel generation to account for a 50% share in power generation by 2030, up from a 42.3% baseline in 2025 (see China Solar PV News Snippets). 

Wind and solar together should account for over 50% of installed power capacity by the end of this decade under the 15th FYP. This will amount to 2,700 GW, up from 47% at the end of 2025, says Reuters. 

According to the Co-Founder of the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), Lauri Myllyvirta, this requires China to install about 170 GW/year of new wind and solar, which is much lower than what the market is worth. In comparison, China installed 315 GW AC solar PV and 119.33 GW AC wind energy in 2025 alone, reaching a combined 1.84 TW AC or 47% of the total installed power generation capacity of 3.89 TW AC. Following the country’s shift from feed-in-tariffs (FIT) to market-based pricing reforms in June 2025, China’s solar installations have slowed down since H2 last year.  

The CPIA expects the country to experience its 1st dip in solar installations this year, before rebounding from 2027 (see CPIA: China Solar Installations To Dip In 2026 Before Resuming Growth).  

Moreover, solar and wind energy have reached halfway their combined 3.6 TW AC target for 2035 (see China Sets New Annual Solar PV Installation Record In 2025). 

“The target for 30% of generation from wind and solar is also modest. Wind and solar already accounted for 15.8% of China’s power generation in 2023, 18.6% in 2024 and 22% in 2025, increasing by an average of 3.1 percentage points per year over the past two years,” highlights CREA. 

Despite the low ambition for solar and wind, CREA welcomes the country’s target to spruce up its grid capacity to support 900 GW of distributed renewables. Considering China had 530 GW of distributed solar capacity at the end of 2025, the new target can support the addition of almost 100 GW annually. It will also better utilize existing capacity, according to Myllyvirta, although he rues that the plan does not set a cap on coal-fired generation or outline a timeline for reducing coal use. 

In the scheme of things, to strengthen the power system and integrate higher shares of renewable energy, the country’s target is to add around 160 GW of pumped storage and 300 GW of new energy storage capacity or non-pumped hydro energy storage. For new storage capacity, this translates to about 60 GW of annual additions through the end of this decade. In comparison, China installed 66.43 GW/189.48 GWh of new energy storage capacity in 2025, representing a 52%/73% year-on-year (YoY) increase, according to the China Energy Storage Alliance (CNESA).  

Data released under the CNESA DataLink database shows China’s total power storage capacity reached 213.3 GW at the end of 2025, or the end of the 14th FYP. At 66%, lithium-ion batteries make up the lion’s share of this mix, followed by pumped energy storage at 31%, among others.  

In addition, China aims to build 50 GW each of vehicle-to-grid (V2G) capacity and virtual power plants (VPPs) by 2030 under the 15th FYP. Analysts said these measures address growing challenges related to grid flexibility and renewable integration. 

The plan also targets a more than 10% reduction in power-sector carbon intensity by 2030 compared with 2025 levels. CREA said this would improve emissions intensity but would still allow overall power-sector emissions to rise if electricity demand continues growing. 

Electrification is one of the plan's more ambitious areas in the new 5-year plan. China aims to increase electricity's share of final energy consumption from 30% in 2025 to 35% by 2030, similar to the rate required to achieve the 35% global electrification milestone proposed under the COP31 Action Agenda for 2035, points out Dave Jones, the Co-Founder of energy think tank Ember. 

The target, as per CREA, reflects continued electrification across transport, industry and buildings, although analysts said its climate benefits will depend on how quickly clean electricity replaces fossil fuel generation. 

Nevertheless, Dave Jones notes that the planned increase is faster than the pace achieved during 2020-2025 and broadly aligns with the annual electrification rate required to meet the global 35% target by 2035, as outlined in the COP31 Action Agenda. 

CREA analysts believe that while the 15th FYP underpins China’s clean energy expansion, the targets are not ambitious enough to meet the country's climate commitments on their own and are unlikely to reduce power-sector emissions by 2030 without stronger implementation. “While Beijing’s leaders are increasingly framing the transition to clean energy as a way to ensure energy security, this new plan still leaves ample wiggle room for China’s traditional coal power interests, rather than doubling down on the clean energy sectors, which are already proving not only more reliable but also significant economic contributors,” they add.