China’s 9M 2025 Solar PV Exports Rise As Prices Rebound

China Photovoltaic Industry Association (CPIA) notes that China’s solar market in 9M 2025 moved unevenly at home, with a policy-driven, ‘pulse-like’ jump in installations followed by a slowdown. But strong and growing exports – with higher volumes, stabilizing prices, and rising demand from many new markets – helped balance the domestic swings. 

Speaking as the keynote speaker at the 21st China SoG Silicon and PV Power Conference (CSPV) in China recently, CPIA representative Qing Wang referred to the country’s shift from feed-in tariffs (FIT) to a market-oriented pricing mechanism due to the lack of sustained domestic demand momentum in the market. Till May 2025, installations surged before tapering down, reaching a combined capacity of around 253 GW at the end of October 2025 (see China Exceeds 252 GW AC Solar PV Capacity In 10M 2025).   

“This pattern underscores the market’s heavy reliance on policy milestones and signals a shift toward greater emphasis on project economics and market-driven mechanisms in future development,” observed Wang.  

Growth in Exports  

In contrast, demand for Chinese solar PV components abroad is growing. Even though the total export value fell 14.9% YoY to $22.05 billion in 9M 2025, the decline has slowed, while export volumes went up. According to Wang, this shows that prices have likely hit the bottom and are starting to recover.

Chinese solar cell exports jumped 90.1% YoY, making up 13.6% of all PV product exports – a record high. This reflects the growth of overseas localized manufacturing. An emerging trend is the slowing of exports to the traditional large markets such as Europe and Brazil, and expansion in emerging markets, including Africa, where exports represented a 58.5% annual increase. Out of 57 African nations, 44 experienced growth, with the largest increases coming from Algeria, Egypt, Nigeria, and the Democratic Republic of Congo. 

Chinese manufacturers also shared significant gains in the Asia and North America markets. In all, Wang claimed that Chinese module exports grew YoY in over 110 countries/regions, with 50 of them exceeding 100% growth. The simultaneous boom in numerous small-scale markets globally has gradually become an important driver supporting export growth for Chinese players.  

Prices Stabilizing  

In terms of prices, CPIA says that prices for polysilicon, wafers, and cells began recovering in July 2025 and have since stabilized. Module prices, however, remain under pressure due to their direct exposure to end-market dynamics.  

Owing to this, manufacturers suffered a 16.9% YoY revenue decline across the main PV value chain during 9M 2025, as per the CPIA, but their losses continued to narrow. In Q3 2025, their losses stood at RMB 6.4 billion with a 46.7% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) decline, while their gross margins rebounded to 5.61%. 

“Companies are now proactively rejecting unprofitable orders, signaling an emerging industry-wide consensus on rational pricing,” stated Wang. 

China produced 974,000 metric tons (MT) of polysilicon during the reporting period with a 32.8% annual decline, while wafer production dropped by 12.5% to 490 GW as high inventory and fluctuating hydropower tariffs impacted utilization rates. Solar cell production increased by 8.8% YoY to 495 GW, whereas module output of 443 GW increased by 12.2%, which is a slower growth rate due to weak end-market demand across the supply chain.

Of the total production during 9M 2025, China exported 52 GW of silicon wafers (4.2% increase), 77 GW of solar cell capacity (90.1% jump), and 198 GW of solar modules (5.9% rise).  

Government intervention and industry efforts to curb overcapacity have started showing results as new capacity additions are now effectively contained, according to the association.

In terms of technology, TOPCon is the cell technology of choice since it captured 90.9% of the market share, followed by HJT and XBC accounting for a combined share of around 9%, according to preliminary data available. For the full year, it predicts 87.6% share for TOPCon. 

Speaking of technologies, TaiyangNews will discuss the latest in high-efficiency solar cell technologies—TOPCon, HJT, Back Contact—during its annual flagship event, the 4-day High Efficiency Solar Technologies 2025 Virtual Conference in December 2025. Along with leading industry names in attendance, the conference will take an in-depth look at the cell technology trends shaping the future of solar manufacturing. Registrations are open here. 

Going forward 

The Chinese market is fast moving towards 27% average mass-produced solar cell conversion efficiency, as it reached 25.7% for TOPCon, 25.9% for HJT, and 26.5% for XBC, noted Wang.  

CPIA admitted that the sector is facing near-term headwinds of supply far exceeding demand, while lower auction prices in several regions have dampened short-term investment sentiment. Nevertheless, it believes that these factors may establish genuine price signals in the long run.

CPIA’s Wang said early signs of recovery are emerging, but stressed that the industry still needs time to reach a stable and sustainable footing. It is working with regulators on reforms covering capacity optimization, pricing discipline, standards, quality, and self-regulation. She called on companies to avoid destructive competition and work together toward a healthy market where solar becomes a mainstream energy source. 

The long-term fundamentals for China’s solar industry remain strong, supported by growing global electricity demand, rising electrification, and the country’s firm commitment to its “Dual Carbon” goals for 2030 and 2060 (see China Declares Carbon Neutrality Goal By 2060).

A recent analysis in the China Energy Transformation Outlook 2025 (CETO 2025) projects the country to expand its solar PV capacity to 5.5 TW to 6.5 TW by 2060 across 2 scenarios (see China’s Solar Capacity Forecast To Reach Up To 6.5 TW By 2060).