CPIA Raises Solar Installation Forecast For 2023

• CPIA has revised its forecast for 2023 solar installations in China to between 120 GW to 140 GW
• Chinese exports have been growing, having exceeded $29 billion in H1/2023, with a jump of 13% annually
• Module exports in H1/2023 declined, except to Europe, but wafer and cell shipments grew

The China Photovoltaic Industry Association (CPIA) has raised the forecast for annual solar PV installations for China in 2023 to between 120 GW to 140 GW, after the country reported having added 78.42 GW within H1/2023. China is likely to account for around 40% of global PV capacity this year which the CPIA expects to fall within 305 GW to 350 GW.

CPIA's global forecast is up from 95 GW to 120 GW for China which was to be contributing to global installations of 280 GW to 330 GW that the association announced in February 2023.

The association raised the forecast after the China National Energy Administration (NEA) said China installed 78.42 GW solar in H1/2023, which is over 89% of 87.41 GW the country installed in 2022 (see China PV News Snippets).

Speaking at the review conference for the development of PV industry recently, CPIA's Honorary Chairman Wang Bohua also shared the Chinese solar exports of silicon wafers, cells and modules exceeded $29 billion in the 1^st half of 2023, representing an annual jump of about 13%.

While Chinese manufacturers locked in increased silicon wafer and cell exports thanks mainly to growing global demand from module makers, local media reported Bohua saying that the share of Chinese module exports went down during the period. Companies in Southeast Asia was the main center for silicon wafer exports from China, and Asia took most solar cells.

Europe continued to be the largest module export market for Chinese enterprises (see More Chinese Modules For Europe). However, the CPIA executive believes Chinese exports to Europe could come down in the near future as the continent has a high inventory level, and deals with shortage of labor, and majorly due to installation issues for residential PV.

As for production, China produced over 600,000 MT polysilicon, 65% more than in H1/2022. Silicon wafer production grew 63% YoY to exceed 250 GW, while cell production went up 62% to over 220 GW. The country produced more than 200 GW solar modules with an annual increase of over 60%.

According to CPIA, there has been more than 78% decline in prices across the PV supply chain since the start of 2023, when compared with peak prices in 2022. TaiyangNews and Gessey's PV price index reflects the price changes in the industry on a weekly basis – the latest update for CW 29 showed a year-to-date decrease for silicon prices of up to -67%, while module prices decreased by around -28%  (see TaiyangNews PV Price Index—CW29).