Polish Solar Installations On Growth Path

IEO Expects Poland’s Newly Installed PV Capacity To Grow By Over 6 GW In 2023
The prosumers segment remains the driving factor for Poland’s solar PV market, according to the IEO. (Photo Credit: IEO, Poland)
The prosumers segment remains the driving factor for Poland’s solar PV market, according to the IEO. (Photo Credit: IEO, Poland)
  • IEO says Poland installed 4.75 GW new PV capacity in 2022, led by prosumers
  • At the end of Q1/2023, its cumulative PV capacity grew to exceed 13, including 3.35 GW large farms
  • In 2023, it expects the market to add more than 6 GW to take the total to 18 GW
  • By 2025, analysts peg 26.8 GW aggregate capacity for the country, while government targets 27 GW by 2030

Poland's solar PV installed capacity is likely to grow to 26.8 GW cumulatively by the end of 2025, up from over 13 GW at the end of Q1/2023, according to the Polish research institute Instytut Energetyki Odnawialnej (IEO). It points towards a growing pipeline of projects having secured building permits even as grid connection approvals remain slow to come.

The numbers are more ambitious than the government estimates. In April 2023, the Polish government released a new scenario of its Energy Policy until 2040 or PEP 2040 under which it anticipates solar PV capacity to grow to 27 GW by 2030 and 45 GW by 2040 (see Solar's Share Improves In Poland's PEP 2040).

At the end of 2022, Poland had over 12 GW of installed capacity including 4.75 GW added during the year. Prosumers segment continues to lead the country's total PV capacity with 74% or more than 9.6 GW to the total installed capacity of over 13 GW till Q1/2023. Larger farms added another 26% or more than 3.35 GW to the total.

IEO analysts believe Poland's total installed PV capacity could grow to 18 GW by the end of 2023 with an addition of over 6 GW this year. During the 3-year period from 2023 to 2025, IEO expects the country to add 14.4 GW PV including 10.2 GW in small- and large-scale farms.

Growth is imminent, as per the IEO data, since 6.2 GW planned project capacity has secured building permit as on March 31, 2023, while the capacity of those with grid connection approvals added up to 6.7 GW. It represents a growth of over 3.4 GW capacity that was issued network connection permits in 2022.

"Despite common refusals to issue grid connection conditions, PV investors have a valuable resource of new projects, and farm contractors (EPC companies) can count on a substantial portfolio of orders. Some of these projects are prepared for this year's RES auction in December with a volume allowing for the construction of up to 1.5 GW of new capacity (750 MW in the segment of sources with a capacity above 1 MW and 750 MW in the segment below 1 MW)," explained IEO.

Additionally, more and more projects are being developed as large- scale PV farms as the IEO counts PV power plants with more than 1 MW capacity in its database adding up to 5.6 GW, and those below 1 MW account for 1.4 GW.

According to SolarPower Europe, Poland was the third largest European solar market in 2022 after Spain and Germany, and before the Netherlands on rank #4, keeping its position from 2021.

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