CRU expects global PV installations to decline by around 12% to 590 GW in 2026, mainly due to weaker demand in China
Manufacturing overcapacity is likely to persist despite mergers, acquisitions, and new Chinese efficiency and energy-consumption standards
TOPCon 3.0 is expected to remain the leading technology, while BC expands alongside it and tandem commercialization gains significance in the early 2030s
The global solar market is facing weaker demand, persistent manufacturing overcapacity and continued pressure on product quality. According to market research firm CRU, the downturn in China is expected to reduce global PV installations in 2026, while excess production capacity continues to affect manufacturers’ profitability.
Alex Barrows, Head of PV at CRU, discussed these market conditions during his keynote at the TaiyangNews Global PV System Technology Trends Conference. The firm forecasts global installations to decline by around 12%, from 670 GW in 2025 to approximately 590 GW in 2026. Installations in China fell 70% year-on-year during the first 5 months of 2026 and were 25% lower than during the same period in 2024.
Global installations are forecast to return to growth from 2027, although at a slower rate than before the 2025 peak. Relatively weak targets in China’s 15th Five-Year Plan create further downside risk for the medium-term outlook, Barrows said. As a result, the firm’s optimistic scenario of annual global installations reaching approximately 1 TW by 2030 is becoming increasingly difficult to achieve. However, growth outside China and the US provides some upside potential.
Manufacturing overcapacity is expected to persist. Recent mergers and acquisitions have not meaningfully changed production capacity, and few manufacturers have entered bankruptcy, according to Barrows. China’s polysilicon capacity alone is estimated at around three times market demand, indicating that supply and demand remain far from balance. While some manufacturers expect to return to profitability later in 2026, others anticipate that their PV manufacturing operations will require financial support for several more years.
China’s new standards covering module efficiency and manufacturing energy consumption, which are expected to take effect in early 2027, could force some capacity out of the market. Some existing module and polysilicon production lines may not meet the proposed requirements, potentially forcing manufacturers to upgrade or retire capacity. However, their effect on overcapacity will depend on how strictly the standards are enforced.
Companies are increasingly diversifying into energy storage, power electronics, integrated system solutions, and project financing. Meanwhile, manufacturing costs increased during the first half of 2026 due to higher prices for silver, aluminum, and encapsulants, as well as changes to China’s export tax rebate. Commodity prices have since started to decline. Lower material prices, higher production efficiencies, and reduced silver consumption are expected to gradually bring manufacturing costs down over the next few years.
Chinese cell and module exports increased 12% year-on-year during the first 5 months of 2026. However, CRU forecasts exports to finish slightly below their 2025 level as India’s cell-level Approved List of Models and Manufacturers (ALMM) requirements reduce demand for Chinese cells. For the US market, imports have increasingly shifted toward the Philippines following trade action covering Indonesia, India, and Laos. The Philippines could therefore become a target for a future antidumping investigation, according to Barrows.
Manufacturing activity is also expanding in Africa, including Ethiopia, Kenya, Ghana, and Tanzania. Many of these facilities continue to import wafers from China, creating a risk of US anti-circumvention investigations. Ethiopia has already faced such action, Barrows noted.
TOPCon 3.0 is expected to dominate in the near term, supported by polyfinger rear contacts, edge passivation, quarter-cut or third-cut cells, and slightly overlapping cell layouts. Sales volumes remain relatively low for most manufacturers, particularly outside China, but production and shipments are projected to increase during the second half of 2026 and through 2027.
Barrows was more cautious about BC, whose manufacturing costs per watt may move closer to those of TOPCon between 2028 and 2030. The two technologies are therefore likely to coexist rather than one replacing the other. Their respective market shares will depend partly on whether BC retains an efficiency advantage as TOPCon improves. Perovskite-silicon tandems are expected to become commercially significant only in the early 2030s, although modules are already being supplied for demonstration and pilot projects.
Higher silver prices have renewed interest in low-silver technologies. Barrows highlighted 2-layer or overprint metallization for the rear side of TOPCon cells, with some large manufacturers expected to introduce these approaches into mass production in 2026. However, their material compatibility and reliability require attention.
Aluminum remains the main module-frame material, although steel and composite alternatives are gaining attention. Barrows also noted an increase in application-specific modules for demanding environmental conditions, but these products still account for a small share of sales in markets such as Europe.
Continued price pressure is raising concerns about module reliability. Barrows cited Kiwa PVEL data, indicating an increase in delamination failures, while frame-wall thickness remains below levels associated with more robust module designs. Although manufacturers offer bill-of-material (BOM) options intended to improve reliability, buyers are often unwilling to pay the additional cost.
As a summary, CRU expects weak demand and excess capacity to continue pressuring the PV industry in the near term. At the same time, manufacturing costs are expected to decline gradually, and quality will remain an important concern.
The presentation video is available on the TaiyangNews YouTube channel here.
